A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Paying the price

Public servants, public service users and the poor are going to pay most of the price for the slash and burn Emergency Budget.

But at least there is some justice as the Lib Dems are paying a heavy price politically for abandoning what might either have been their previous principles, or their previous cynical attempt to steal Labour votes by masquerading as being on the left, depending on which way you look at it.

Tonight's ICM poll says:

Con 41% (up 4% from the election)
Lab 35% (up 5%)
LD 16% (down 7.5%)

The good news is this is basically a return to a two-party system with the LDs projected to lose two thirds of their MPs.

The bad news is the Tories are not being damaged - in fact the opposite. We are winning the economic and cuts argument with the wing of the LDs' supporters who should always have been Labour anyway. We have yet to win it with the swing voters who actually decide the outcome of elections - there is not going to be some easy bounce back into a poll lead for Labour however gross and repugnant we may find the Coalition's actions.

14 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

All is going swimmingly until Dianne opens her mouth.

12:34 am, June 27, 2010

 
Anonymous Gerald said...

Don't worry, wait for these cuts to bite, then you'll see the Tory lead melt faster than ice cream on a hot day.

9:53 am, June 27, 2010

 
Anonymous Rich said...

As soon as middle England see the result of the cuts then you'll see tory support plummit.

Obviously these cuts are lovely news for the rabid tory tea party movement and my personal belief is that the torys want the coalition to break up before these cuts bite.

They boost their poll rating, the coalition breaks up, torys call an election, they win an outright majority. I can't believe the lib dems can't see this. The lib dems are cutting their own throats. Any gains they have made will soon be lost.

12:50 pm, June 27, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmmm ! May be yes and may be no on the Tory voters.

But in 10 months time we have regional elections in Wales and Scotland and more English Council elections - I suggest thst if the Liberal Democraps get tanked here then the brown stuff will hit the fan anhd there will br many individual Liberal MP's jumping ship.


It will be very amusing to watch, just as long as the Labour Party is carefull with who they let scramble on board and decide whose hands are to be stamped on when they try and reach for the lifeline.

GW

The Liberal Democats - Twinned with RMS Titanic.

9:56 pm, June 27, 2010

 
Blogger Merseymike said...

Remember that every government has a honeymoon period. This one is no different. Give it time. Also, we don't really have a leader at the moment . I think Harriet is doing the right thing to keep the core vote on side.

However, I think the days of winning what are essentially safe Tory seats are not what we should be wanting to do. Plenty of Labour voters stayed away last time. And we will probably never win back Welwyn Hatfield or Peterborough. We went too far to the right before and I think at least some of the leadership contenders realise that

10:47 pm, June 27, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Merseymike, both P'oro and Welwyn returned Labour MPs pre-1997.

I kind of get what you are saying, but you could have picked better examples, maybe :-)

12:38 am, June 28, 2010

 
Blogger Bill said...

Sadly AV plus seat reductions will save them, that's why they're in a hurry.

8:28 am, June 28, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How dare they stop spending money we don't and never will have. Thoroughly unjustified!

1:05 pm, June 28, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"We are winning the economic and cuts argument with the wing of the LDs' supporters who should always have been Labour anyway".

Presumably, a reference to those voters who were totally sickened by the invasion of Iraq and a trampling of our precious civil liberties that took place under Labour with Luke's full approval.

1:37 pm, June 28, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Luke

To be honest, I think some public sector tightening isn't the end of the world - my wife has to manage a team of 12 as a teacher, ten of which you wouldn't pay with turnips...

Anyway, agree on the other point - any decent journo should surely have a bit of fun with this ad...


http://www.w4mp.org/html/personnel/jobs/disp_job.asp?ref=25208

Cheers

Randon Shandwick bloke of old

5:11 pm, June 28, 2010

 
Blogger Merseymike said...

Demographic change means that we may never win those seats again though - but we should win back Lancaster, Blackpool North, Morecambe, Cardiff N, etc. We can't hold out for big majorities by watering down enough to appeal to the majority of the south

6:22 pm, June 28, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bill, a "yes" vote in the referendum is by no means assured. The Tories (and even more importantly their captive press) will be going all out for its defeat.

M/Mike - our collapse in Peterborough is at least partly explained by our ex-MP there - one of the very WORST Mps the party has EVER had :-(

Based on that, a comeback is by no means out of the question......

12:50 am, June 29, 2010

 
Blogger Merseymike said...

Ah, yes, you mean Helen Clark!

I'm saying nothing....

4:59 pm, July 01, 2010

 
Blogger Edward Carlsson Browne said...

We aren't winning back Welwyn Hatfield easily, no - and although it had been Labour before 1997, that was only from October 74 until 79.

Peterborough is a different matter though. It's not a safe Tory seat. On economic grounds, it could quite easily go Labour. And the same applies to much of the south.

We need to remember that not all of the south is Surrey or Kent. There are plenty of areas we can win if we get our act together, and most of them don't require a swift move to the right. Look at Clacton, for example. It's harder now that it's been split from Harwich, but Carswell is ludicrously right wing and whilst that appeals to the constituency's interior, demographically Clacton resembles the north and Jaywick in particular is extremely deprived.

Similarly, there are seats like the Norwich ones, where we won't win on a working class hero message but should win.

Most seats in the south are difficult at the best of times and if we do get them will only bolster an already huge majority. But there are an awful lot we need to win to get that majority, and many more that we need to win because the areas desperately need a Labour MP.

3:03 pm, July 03, 2010

 

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