An exercise to see if my predictive powers are up to scratch - can someone check this when the Labour leadership results are announced:
1st round overall order:
1 - D Miliband
2 - E Miliband (second in all 3 sections of electoral college)
3 - Abbott (a poor 5th among MPs but narrowly top among members and possibly TU section too )
4 - Balls
5 - Burnham
My caveat would be that the top 4 are going to end up bunched quite close together so the order could change.
Burnham eliminated first and his transfers will benefit David M the most.
Balls eliminated second and his transfers strongly benefit Ed M at which point Ed M takes the lead.
Abbott last to be eliminated, her transfers overwhelmingly benefit Ed M at which point he wins 55-45.