A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Take primaries with a pinch of salt

I've seen much excited tweeting today about David Miliband narrowly beating Ed Miliband in a primary straw poll run in Edinburgh East CLP.

Only one problem but quite a major one.

For some reason Edinburgh East ran their vote on First-Past-the-Post.

And the real leadership election is run on the Alternative Vote, with votes cast for the 3rd, 4th and 5th placed candidates transferring to their second or lower preferences.

All the polls done so far in the leadership campaign show Ed Miliband picking up a 60-40 advantage in transfers. So if Edinburgh East had used the correct system, he would have won.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Presumably on the assumption that Edinburgh East followed the same trend as elsewhere. There is no guarantee of that. Mind you, I expect the Tories hope you are right.

7:23 pm, August 23, 2010

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Luke

in respect of your comment ... 'All the polls done so far in the leadership campaign show Ed Miliband picking up a 60-40 advantage in transfers. So if Edinburgh East had used the correct system, he would have won.'

Any evidence to back up your claim?

Most recent evidence to the contrary (from YouGov) laid out here http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2010/08/21/david-miliband-has-eight-point-lead/

With a follow up on the Edinburgh East Primary here http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2010/08/24/david-miliband-squeaks-a-win/

12:55 pm, August 24, 2010

 

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