Sunday Times YouGov poll
For those of you not into going behind the Murdoch paywall, the Sunday Times has a YouGov poll of more than 1,000 Labour party members and 718 members of trade unions affiliated to the Labour party.
It has the following results after transfers:
Party Members
D Miliband 48%
E Miliband 52%
Trade Unions
D Miliband 43%
E Miliband 57%
MPs & MEPs
D Miliband 56%
E Miliband 44%
Overall Electoral College
D Miliband 49%
E Miliband 51%
To quote Henry G Manson, a regular and usually accurate commenter on politicalbetting.com:
"This poll doesn’t surprise me in the slightest. Ed Miliband’s team are winning the ground war. Their telephone polling operation is superb. If anything this poll is likely to understate his lead a touch since my hunch is that his supporters will be more motivated to vote and more likely to be reminded to do so by the campaign."
posted by Luke Akehurst at 12:21 am
4 Comments:
If it is reflected in the final result what a happy day for the Conservative party. Only Labour could be offered the heir to Blair and not seize the opportunity.
2:28 pm, September 12, 2010
Hmm, I know you want Ed to win - but has it occurred to you that this, if accurate, might not exactly be the ideal outcome?
For a start, a more decisive margin would be good whoever wins - but there is a good argument that if it is to be very close, a DM victory would be preferable. It might cause him to take more notice of the party as a whole - and less of the coterie of uber-Blairite has beens (especially their media personages)
And these figures show that EM would have minority support amongst MPs (remember IDS??) and would owe his razor-thin margin to union support. Cue an avalanche of comment that he "is in hock to the union barons" (especially from the embittered u-Bs already referred to) Now, you know and I know that these are individual union members speaking - but, of course, you can expect our media to ignore such irrelevant niceties ;-)
Combine this with the likely onslaught that his election would be a "lurch to the left" (the comparisons with Benn and Foot have already been made) and the fact he would have a very hurt and disappointed older sibling to deal with somehow or other - and one can only wish Ed the best of luck.....
'Cos he will certainly need it :-)
4:02 pm, September 12, 2010
Without being overly cynical, MP's on the whole vote for the candidate they think will win. Most thought Miliband D would be a shoo-in so declared for him early.
As things are looking closer, expect many to give their transfer to Ed thinking about that possible future job!
1:23 am, September 13, 2010
If this is true, then the result itself, and the closeness of it, are about the best news the Conservative Party could wish for. Well done good old Labour Party. Always getting it wrong, never the will to win, never the necessary ruthlessness. Ordinary folk will not thank us for wrapping ourselves in a comfort blanket.
12:13 pm, September 13, 2010
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