A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Lib Dem support by region

From MORI:

Party support by region - based on aggregate of polling data since June, so not capturing fully the recent acceleration of LD decline.

Ben Page, CEO, Ipsos MORI is quoted saying:

“It is traditional for Lib Dems to drop in the polls outside of election campaigns, this is usually down to a lack of media exposure. But now they’re in government – and making headlines, albeit negative ones and their support has still fallen. Especially interesting is the drop in the Lib Dem stronghold of the South West and to just 4% in the North East.”

LD to Lab swing since General Election - showing seats that would be gained on this swing (on current boundaries and electoral system):

North East 19% (Redcar)
South West 16% (Bristol W)
London 11% (Brent C, Hornsey & Wood Green, Bermondsey & OS)
Eastern 8.5% (Norwich S, Cambridge)
North West 8% (Manchester Withington, Burnley)
Yorkshire 6% (Bradford E)
Wales 5%
East Midlands 4.5%
South East 4.5%
West Midlands 2.5%
Scotland 1%

Con/Lab swing since GE:

North East 9.5% Con to Lab (delivering only 1 seat)
Eastern 9% Con to Lab (delivering 11 seats)
North West 5% Con to Lab (delivering 11 seats)
London 4.5% Con to Lab (delivering 6 seats)
South West 4.5% Con to Lab (delivering 6 seats)
Wales 4% Con to Lab (delivering 1 seat)
South East 3.5% Con to Lab (delivering 3 seats)
Yorkshire 1.5% Con to Lab (delivering 1 seat)
East Midlands 1.5% Lab to Con (1 seat lost)
West Midlands 1.5% Lab to Con (3 seats lost)
Scotland 2.5% Lab to Con (no seat implications)

LD to Con swing since GE:
South West 11.5% (12 Tory gains)
North East 10.5% (1 Tory gain)
London 6.5% (2 Tory gains)
East Midlands 6% (no seat implications)
Yorkshire 4.5% (no seat implications)
West Midlands 4% (1 Tory gain)
Scotland 3.5% (no seat implications)
North West 3% (no seat implications)
South East 1% (no seat implications)
Wales 1% (no seat implications)
Eastern 0.5% from Con to LD (no seat implications)

Lab to Plaid Cymru swing of 1.5% (no seat implications)

Lab to SNP swing of 2% (no seat implications)

What I'm taking from this is Labour needs to focus on the Midlands where our recovery has been slow, and that the LD collapse will help us more in terms of delivering Tory seats to us than it will Lib Dem seats (there are too few of them where we are second).


OpenID bristolwestpaul said...

Luke you may remember some of these leaflets


6:16 pm, December 10, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Labour introduced the fees in the 1st place and we all know once the fees are in place they go up!

Its time the LP was claimed by the working classes and boot out these stupid plastic Tories in the LP!

11:13 am, December 12, 2010

Blogger Frank Owen said...

By my reckoning, this gives:

Lab: 312 (+54)
Con: 278 (-28)
LD: 31 (-26)
NI: 18 (n/c)
Spkr: 1 (n/c)
Oth: 10 (n/c)

Labour short by 13
Lab/Lib coaltion majority of 36

...assuming no seat changes other than those listed.

We need to be getting more off the Tories - leave the Libs to their demise. Apart from anything else, it's rude to stare.

7:03 pm, December 12, 2010

Blogger Mark Still News said...

The Tories are the Centre of this and Liberals a chip. The Chip may start crumbling, but the centre will be rock solid. The Lib/Dems ridiculed themselves by having some abstain from the vote, such as the leader Simon Hughs, who really should have made his mind up to back the policy or vote against it, as its his party he leads is in government now.

With the Lib/Dems unpopularity this could strengthen the Tories up.

Its right to now concentrate on attacking and ridiculing the Tories.

10:59 am, December 13, 2010


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