A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Council by-elections

Three tonight:

Kenton Ward, LB Brent. Con hold. Con 1063 (44.1%, -0.3), Lab 907 (37.7%, +2.6), Ind 185 (7.7%, +7.7), LD 179 (7.4%, -8.6), Green 75 (3.1%, -1.4). Swing of 1.5% from Con to Lab since 2010.

Quarry & Coton Hill Division, Shropshire UA. LD gain from Con. LD 356 (41.8%, +5.7), Con 269 (31.6%, -12), Lab 197 (23.1%, +23.1), Ind 30 (3.5%, +3.5). Swing of 8.9% from Con to LD since 2009.

Bourn Ward, South Cambridgeshire DC. Con hold. Con 874 (56.3%, +11), LD 345 (22.2%, -16.9), Lab 334 (21.5%, +10.1). Swing of 14% from LD to Con since 2010.

7 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Before any LibDems get overexcited about the Shropshire result perhaps they should note that in 2009 that c20% of the vote went to Albion and Green party candidates who were not standing this time. The results continue to demonstrate that the "progressive" vote in rural/Tory areas is leaving the LibDems and going to Labour - the electorate are finally seeing through the LibDems all things to all people rhetoric.

12:15 pm, February 18, 2011

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Perhaps the message to the Labour Party in mixed wards/seats are that there are LAbour votes out there in the more prosperous areas if you go looking for them.

12:17 pm, February 18, 2011

 
Anonymous Alun said...

Surprisingly high Labour vote for that part of Shrewsbury; Coton Hill has always had potential of a reasonable Labour vote, but the town centre is dreadful territory for Labour.

6:40 pm, February 18, 2011

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

not happy about Brent
come on Comrades

I know this is a safe Tory ward but
London should be Tory free asap

Good result in Cambridgeshire - Well done

Rural vote is rocketing

7:40 pm, February 18, 2011

 
Anonymous Richard said...

Luke, your swing figures for Kenton do not match up to those published in the Independent.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-gain-seat-from-tories-2218764.html#Scene_1

I haven't done the mathematics but it appears that they have compared one candate in one ward with the three candidates in three wards.


Can you shed any light on this

11:16 pm, February 18, 2011

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Hi Richard,

the Indie is basing its 2010 vote shares on an average of the votes cast for the 3 candidates for the main parties.

I always calculate the ones I quote based on the votes cast for the highest candidate of each party in a multi-member ward.

Both methods are equally valid - there's no definite way of working out vote share in multi-member seats.

12:25 am, February 19, 2011

 
Anonymous Richard said...

Thanks Luke.

The bulk of the LD vote seems to have transferred to the Independent. Would you know whether that candidate was a former LD? I'm guessing, but it kind of makes sense.

10:31 am, February 19, 2011

 

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