A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Council by-elections

Just two by-elections last night, both confirming the trend to Labour:

Rose Grove & Lowerhouse Ward, Burnley BC. Lab gain from LD. Lab 521 (43.1%, +11.8), BNP 288 (23.8%, +5.4), LD 261 (21.6%, -11.8), Con 81 (6.7%, -10.2), Ind 58 (4.8%, +4.8). Swing of 3.2% from BNP to Lab since 2010.

Brunswick Park Ward, LB Southwark. Lab 1981 (65.1%, +13.3), LD 630 (20.7%, -2), Green 231 (7.6%, -6.9), Con 129 (4.2%, -6.7), Trade Union & Socialist 70 (2.3%, +2.3). Swing of 7.7% from LD to Lab since 2010.


Anonymous James Thurston said...

These results are looking good Luke, but always, it goes without saying, with the caveat of no room for complacency.

Sincere congratulations to the successful Labour candidates, Beatrice Foster (Rose Grove with Lowerhouse: Burnley BC) and Mark Williams (Brunswick Park: Southwark LB).

It is striking that when the results of the two by-elections here are looked at as a whole, the Conservative vote collapsed as well as the Lib Dem vote.

While the Lib Dem vote in Burnley fell by 35%, the Conservative share of the vote in both seats fell by substantially more than 50%.

I believe that the real story here is that the Conservatives are suffering from a serious hit to their support as well as the Lib Dems - in Local Government and Parliamentary By-Elections at least.

This can be borne out as an increasing trend as the Conservative vote collapsed by approximately 13% in the Oldham East & Saddleworth Parliamentary By-Election and their vote more than Halved ( down 9% to 8.3%) in the Barnsley Central Parliamentary By-Election.

There are other more philosophical and policy trends that add weight to this argument and fit an overarching trend, for example David Camerons perceived substantial softening of his commitment to the "Euro-Sceptic" Agenda by the Conservative Right Wing, and the slow Drip Drip of news about Savage Cuts to Public Services being picked up by "Swing Voters".

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Real Story is that it is no longer notable that the Lib Dems have suffered a serious drop in electoral support, but that Now the Conservatives are Starting to Suffer Electoral Damage themselves.

9:59 am, March 11, 2011

Blogger Merseymike said...

Look at those two carefully - Burnley is a seat which the FibDems took from us in 2010. The coalition has lost 21% of its vote. Worrying that the BNP have gained some of it but perversely that is likely to be the sort, protest, FibDem vote which has always been something of a dustbin of discontent

Seems to me that the NW is not at all happy with the FibDems

11:29 am, March 11, 2011

Blogger Hughes Views said...

Thanks for continuing to publish these results each week. Is it easy for you to include turnout figures? I guess the 2010 figures would be much higher than yesterday's.

I guess that loads of Tory and Lib Dem supporters are not voting at the moment rather than switching to Labour.

11:57 am, March 11, 2011

Anonymous Anonymous said...

its winning that counts

roll on may elections

lib dem councillors halved
rise of ukip

Big Labour gains

4:01 pm, March 11, 2011

Anonymous eastender said...

@ hughes views

It is certainly true that too much cannot be taken from the results of council by elections, the turnouts are often low and local issues often play a big role. However unlike national opinion polls they are actual votes in real elections so over a period of time it is possible to draw some general conclusions.

At the moment it seems clear that the libdems are loosing considerable numbers of votes especially in the north / north west. The tories seem to be loosing votes too but that appears to be less pronounced. These results are probably a reasonable guide to what will happen in the local elections on May 5th. Labour doing well to very well, Tories doing poorly, Libdems doing very badly especially out side of the south west. The seats up for election this May were last fought in 2007, hardly a good year for Labour. This will also help Labour as it is likely many of the seats lost then will be retaken.

I doubt they have very much to tell us about the outcome of the next general election

8:10 pm, March 11, 2011

Anonymous Anonymous said...

well done to smash the Lib Dems in Burnley

Burnley's Lib Dem MP Gordon Birtwistleis is responsible for a lot of the collapse in in Lib Dem vote - pompus or what - hes a great assett in fact to Labour

Lets pray he stands at the next election

Meanwhile this result means Lib Dems have lost control of Burnely council

Thank you Mr Gordon Birtwistle

11:50 pm, March 11, 2011

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous 11.50 pm:

Yes, but don't forget the truly dreadful record of Burnley's last Labour MP, Kitty Ussher, who had to stand down from the government after the revelations about her expenses.

She also made a truly scurrilous attack on those principled Labour MPs who refused to support Blair
over 90 days detention. That figure had not even been asked for by the Intelligence services,
as Andrew Rawnsley makes clear in his most recent book (p340).

11:41 am, March 12, 2011

Anonymous Anonymous said...

great results

7:27 pm, March 12, 2011


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