A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Friday, May 10, 2013

Council by-elections


There were four council by-elections yesterday. Labour performed well and there was a repeat of the UKIP surge from the county council elections, with a gain in Thanet where they had already picked up 7 of 8 county councillors.

Longbridge Ward, LB Barking & Dagenham. Lab hold. Lab 1555 (64.3%, +19), UKIP 466 (19.3%, +19.3), Con 284 (11.7%, -5.1), LD 78 (3.2%, -13.9), BNP 37 (1.5%, 0-7.8).Swing of 0.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2010.

Abbey Ward, Leicester CC. Lab hold. Lab 1190 (47.9%, -4), Con 562 (22.6%, +7.6), Ind 352 (14.8%, +14.8), LD 212 (8.6%, +1), TUSC 165 (6.7%, +6.7). Swing of 5.8% from Lab to Con since 2011.

Alexandra Ward, Oldham MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1553 (70.7%, +24.3), UKIP 412 (18.8%. +18.8), LD 96 (4.4%, -14.4), Con 80 (3.6%, -31.2), Green 55 (2.5%, +2.5). Swing of 2.8% from UKIP to Lab since 2012.

Cliftonville East Ward, Thanet DC. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 699 (40.6%, +40.6), Con 526 (30.6%, -15.3), Lab 352 (20.5%, +0.6), Ind 112 (6.5%, -16.7), LD 32 (1.9%, +1.9). Swing of 28% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Question said...

How can Alexandra ward have a swing from UKIP to Labour if UKIP didn't even stand last time?

10:50 pm, May 10, 2013

 
Blogger Luke Akehurst said...

Because swing is just the change in the first party this time added to the change in the second party this time, divided by two. In this case because Labour's vote went up by more than UKIP's, the swing was from UKIP to Labour.

10:12 pm, May 11, 2013

 
Blogger Duncan Hall said...

Which is a pretty good illustration of why "swing" is such a useless psephological concept upon which far too much import is placed.

8:50 am, May 15, 2013

 

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