In the comments on my post below people have questioned my assertion that Bob Spink's defection to UKIP could turn Castle Point into a 3-way marginal.
A bit of evidence of the UKIP vote there even before the MP defected:
Votes cast in the June 2004 European Parliament elections in Castle Point constituency
Tory 7421
UKIP 6805
Labour 4433
BNP 1569
Lib Dem 1485
Green 959
Martin Bell 742
English Democrats 477
Respect 134
'Jim' 58
Prolife 29
Indeed. You could (I'm afraid) easily see BNP votes going to UKIP which, on those figures, would put UKIP ahead. Equally, UKIP'd probably mop up the English Democrats vote and Martin Bell was a wild card.
ReplyDeleteYour maths is still wrong. See my comment on your original post.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a bad case of Sour Grapes !
ReplyDeleteDo you have any idea what a pathetic figure you cut today?
ReplyDeleteThe BNP will probably double 2004 numbers.
ReplyDelete