A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Monday, April 05, 2010

A good poll to kick off the short campaign


Con 37% (down 1)
Lab 33% (up 4)
LD 21% (down 2)

a) ICM are seen by other pollsters as the "gold standard" for accuracy
b) this percentage share would make Labour the largest party in the Commons by about a 25 seat margin
c) traditionally there's about a 5% swing back to the government during most UK General Election campaigns - it only need a 2% swing for Labour to be level with the Tories and back on the score we got in 2005


Anonymous Arnold said...

Cheers, mate!

Let's send Cameron back to the obscurity from whence he came. Roll on 6th May! Labour to win!

7:12 am, April 06, 2010

Blogger CROWN said...

traditionally there is a swing away from Labour during a campaign. Political Betting had a properly sourced article on this http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/

7:13 am, April 06, 2010

Blogger E10 Rifle said...

I'm still pessimistic.

That Gene Hunt campaign poster is a disastrous misjudgment isn't it? People like Gene Hunt - it's idiotic to compare him to Cameron

10:43 am, April 06, 2010

Anonymous Anonymous said...

no longer quoting YouGov...? The average poll lead for the Tories has been pretty consistent at 6-ish but risen slightly in the last week.

1:17 pm, April 06, 2010

Blogger Unknown said...

Tories say they will stand up for society's dispossessed


5:03 pm, April 06, 2010

Anonymous alderney luxury villas said...

I did a you gov survey today.

11:13 pm, April 06, 2010


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