Columns

My columns from last week:

http://labourlist.org/2013/02/alan-johnson-and-len-mccluskey-both-need-to-calm-down/

http://labourlist.org/2013/02/what-might-be-driving-the-johnsonmccluskey-war-of-words/

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/02/20/a-new-mode-of-preventative-intervention/

Council by-elections

There were four council by-elections last week, the Chelmsford one being held on Tuesday rather than the usual Thursday. The contrast between the very weak Lib Dem performance in the two urban seats and the gains they made in the two seats where they have a strong local campaign machine is fascinating and suggests they may continue to do well in parliamentary seats where they have the incumbent MP.

Broomfield and The Walthams Ward, Chelmsford City Council. LD gain from Ind. LD 543 (38.2%, +17.8), Con 423 (29.7%, -3.5), UKIP 280 (19.7%, +19.7), Lab 129 (9.1%, +0.1), Green 47 (3.3%, -6.4). Swing of 10.7% from Con to LD since 2011.

West Harrow Ward, LB Harrow. Lab hold. Lab 1042 (47.6%, +7), Con 761 (34.7%, +2.1), UKIP 171 (7.8%, +2.9), Green 96 (4.4%, +4.4), LD 68 (3.1%, -16.4), Ind 53 (2.4%, +2.4). Swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab since 2010.

Cromer Town Ward, North Norfolk DC. LD gain from Con. LD 558 (46.6%, +19.7), Lab 240 (20.1%, -4.3), UKIP 218 (18.2%, +18.2), Con 181 (15.1%, -22.3). Swing of 12% from Lab to LD since 2011. Tories go from 1st to 4th.

Castleford Central & Glasshoughton Ward, Wakefield MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1567 (76.7%, +0.4), UKIP 349 (17.1%, +1.1), Con 95 (4.6%, -3.1), LD 33 (1.6%, +1.6). Swing of 0.4% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Progress column

My Progress column this week was about Ed Miliband's announcement on the 10p tax rate: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/02/14/10p-and-the-mansion-tax/

Council by-elections

There were four council by-elections last night:

Rutherglen South Ward, South Lanarkshire UA. Lab gain from SNP. First preferences: Lab 1352 (39.9%, -4), LD 999 (29.5%, +4.7), SNP 712 (21%, -2.9), Con 128 (3.8%, -1.1), UKIP 111 (3.3%, +3.3), Green 59 (1.7%, +1.7), Ind 31 (0.9%, +0.9). Swing of 4.4% from Lab to LD since 2012. This result gives Labour majority control of S Lanarks Council for the first time since 2007.

Perton East Ward, South Staffordshire DC. Ind gain from Con. Ind 314 (65.1%, +16.9), Con 168 (34.9%, -16.9). Swing of 16.9% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Dawley Magna Ward, Telford & Wrekin UA. Lab hold. Lab 957 (53.9%, +11.4), Con 379 (21.4%, -8.1), UKIP 312 (17.6%, +17.6), Ind 126 (7.1%, +7.1). Swing of 9.8% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Gainsborough East Ward, West Lindsey DC. LD hold. LD 169 (28.6%, -15.7), Lab 149 (25.3%, -6.3), UKIP 143 (24.2%, +24.2), Con 129 (21.9%, -2.2). Swing of 4.7% from LD to Lab since 2011. Unusual instance of UKIP intervention hurting the LDs more than the Tories.

Council by-elections

There were three by-elections yesterday:

Berry Hill Ward, Forest of Dean DC. Lab hold. Lab 276 (59.7%, +4.6), Con 101 (21.9%, -23), UKIP 85 (18.4%, +18.4). Swing of 13.8% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Wormholt & White City Ward, LB Hammersmith & Fulham. Lab hold. Lab 1419 (66.9%, +6.8), Con 251 (11.8%, -11.5), LD 209 (9.9%, -6.7), UKIP 122 (5.8%, +5.8), Ind 75 (3.5%, +3.5), BNP 45 (2.1%, +2.1). Swing of 9.2% from Con to Lab since 2010.

Village Ward, Stockton-on-Tees UA. Ind hold. Ind 800 (61.2%, +8.1), Lab 270 (20.6%, -11.6), UKIP 135 (10.3%, +10.3), Con 85 (6.5%, -5.3), LD 18 (1.4%, -1.5). Swing of 9.9% from Lab to Ind since 2011.

In all these results the impact on the Tories of UKIP fielding candidates is apparent.

Progress column

My Progress column this week ponders why Iran Air can fly to Heathrow when it is a sanctioned entity in the USA: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/02/06/why-is-iran-air-still-flying-to-heathrow/

Labourlist Column

My Labourlist column this week is about the Eastleigh by-election:

http://labourlist.org/2013/02/labour-has-nothing-to-lose-in-eastleigh-and-should-throw-the-kitchen-sink-at-it/

Council by-elections

There were just two council by-elections yesterday:

Bryncoch Ward, Bridgend UA. Lab hold. Lab 222 (62.5%, -11.7), PC 54 (15.2%, +15.2), Ind 41 (11.5%, +11.5), LD 24 (6.8%, -19), Ind 14 (3.9%, +3.9). Swing of 13.5% from Lab to PC since 2012.

Woolaston and Stourbridge Town, Dudley MBC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 847 (35.8%, -1.5), Con 787 (33.3%, +0.9), UKIP 249 (10.5%, +0.8), Ind 211 (8.9%, +8.9), LD 169 (7.1%, -5.7), BNP 96 (4.1%, +4.1), Green 7 (0.3%, +0.3). Swing of 1.2% from Lab to Con since 2012. Quite an achievement for the Greens to get fewer votes than the number of nomination signatures you need to get on the ballot paper! This ward is in Stourbridge, number 80 of Labour’s 106 target parliamentary marginals.