Council by-elections

A bumper crop of eight council by-elections yesterday, with an impressive three gains from the Tories for Labour, in Dartford, Plymouth and South Tyneside. UKIP’s vote continues to go up in both Tory and Labour areas, but they lost a County Council division in Worcestershire to the independent Health Concern Party, and the South Tyneside Cleadon Ward which had been theirs following the defection of the sitting Tory councillor. The LDs only contested three of the eight seats and got under 10% in all of them.

The Dartford gain is important. Kent has underperformed for Labour in the last few years. According to UKPollingReport “Dartford is the country`s strongest bellwether seat, having returned an MP from the party that went on to win the election since 1964”. However, it is outside Labour’s 106 official target seats, with a Tory majority of 10,628.

Billericay East Ward, Basildon BC. Con hold. Con 790 (50.8%, -6.7), UKIP 464 (29.8%, +14.2), Lab 170 (10.9%, -3.7), LD 128 (8.2%, -3.9), NF 3 (0.2%, +0.2). Swing of 10.5% from Con to UKIP since 2012.

Newtown Ward, Dartford BC. Lab gain from Con. Labour 536 (45.4%, +4.5), Con 376 (31.9%, -14.3), UKIP 268 (22.7%, +22.7). Swing of 9.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Farnsfield & Bilsthorpe Ward, Newark & Sherwood DC. Con hold. Con 1174 (63.3%, +4.7), Lab 682 (36.7%, -4.7). Swing of 4.7% from Lab to Con since 2011.

Southway Ward, Plymouth CC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 1247 (43.1%, -8.2), UKIP 765 (26.5%, +4.6), Con 486 (16.8%, -10.1), Ind 290 (10%, +10), LD 82 (2.8%, +2.8), TUSC 22 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 6.4% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Ketton Ward, Rutland UA. Con hold. Con 330 (44.4%), Ind 260 (34.9%), UKIP 130 (17.5%), Ind 24 (3.2%). Previously an uncontested ward.

Cleadon & East Boldon Ward, South Tyneside MBC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 991 (38.8%, -7.3), Con 899 (35.2%, -18.3), UKIP 666 (26.1%, +26.1). Swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab since 2012. The sitting councillor had been elected as a Tory but subsequently defected to UKIP.

Primrose Ward, South Tyneside MBC. Lab hold. Lab 755 (50.3%, -25), UKIP 520 (34.6%, +34.6), BNP 146 (9.7%, -3.6), Con 80 (5.3%, -6.1). Swing of 29.8% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Stourport-on-Severn Division, Worcestershire CC. Health Concern gain from UKIP. Health Concern 1055 (30.7%, +4.2), UKIP 892 (26%, -1.5), Con 735 (21.4%, +1.9), Lab 607 (17.7%, -5), Green 77 (2.2%, -1.6), Ind 39 (1.1%, +1.1), LD 30 (0.9%, +0.9). Swing of 2.9% from UKIP to Health Concern since May this year.

Guardian letters page

Me, on Trident renewal, in the Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/21/labour-recycles-trident-debate

Council by-elections

Here is a round-up of council by-elections from the last two weeks. The UKIP surge has continued with a seat gained in Norfolk and strong second places in a number of Labour wards. However, where Labour has needed good performances, in marginal Kirklees and Milton Keynes, our vote has gone up. The results from Scotland are also pleasing.

13th June

Watlington Ward, King’s Lynn & W Norfolk DC. UKIP gain from LD. UKIP 179 (45.5%, +45.5), Con 115 (29.3%, +29.3), Lab 99 (25.2%, +7.7). Swing of 8.1% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Liversedge and Gomersal Ward, Kirklees MBC. Lab gain from Con. Lab 1517 (43.4%, +5.1), Con 1378 (39.4%, -9.6), LD 599 (17.1%, +13.4). Swing of 7.4% from Con to Lab since 2012. This is in Batley & Spen parliamentary seat, one of a belt of marginals in the Pennines, and is a council we might take control of next year.

Woolston Ward, Southampton CC. Lab hold. Lab 864 (32.5%, -22.6), UKIP 731 (27.5%, +27.5), Con 704 (26.4%, -5.4), TUSC 136 (5.1%, +0.4), LD 120 (4.5%, -3.8), Green 107 (4%, +4). Swing of 25.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

20th June

Boltons Ward, Allerdale DC. Ind hold. Ind 175 (35.7%, -31.5), Con 157 (32%, -1.8), Ind 103 (21%, +21), Green 55 (11.2%, +11.2). No swing calculable.

Liberton and Gilmerton Ward, Edinburgh CC. Lab gain from SNP. First preference votes: Lab 2892 (39.5%, -1.4), SNP 2249 (30.7%, -0.9), Con 823 (11.2%, -1.1), LD 605 (8.3%, +0.7), Green 412 (5.6%, +0.4), UKIP 235 (3.2%, +3.2), Ind 64 (0.9%, +0.9), Pirate 47 (0.6%, +0.6). Swing of 0.3% from Lab to SNP since 2012. Congratulations to my former NOLS colleague Keith Robson on becoming a councillor!

Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch Ward, Fife UA. Lab hold. First preference votes: Lab 1896 (45.8%, +4.9), SNP 1711 (41.3%, -6.2), Con 272 (6.6%, +0.8), UKIP 176 (4.3%, +4.3), LD 83 (2%, +0.5). Swing of 5.6% from SNP to Lab since 2012.

Bletchley and Fenny Stratford Ward, Milton Keynes UA. Lab hold. Lab 1356 (39.9%, +3.1), UKIP 855 (25.2%, +14.3), Con 779 (22.9%, -12.6), Green 277 (8.2%, -4), LD 128 (3.8%, -0.9). Swing of 5.5% from Lab to UKIP since 2012. Tories drop to 3rd place in a ward they held until 2012. This is the Labour parliamentary target seat of Milton Keynes South.

Weaste and Seedley Ward, Salford MBC. Lab hold. Lab 785 (44.4%, -10.3), UKIP 401 (22.7%, +22.7), Con 260 (14.7%, +2.1), Green 80 (4.5%, +4.5), BNP 74 (4.2%, -4.5), Ind 64 (3.6%, +3.6), LD 58 (3.3%, -15.4), TUSC 30 (1.7%, +1.7), Ind 15 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 16.5% from Lab to UKIP since 2012. 

Progress Column

My Progress column from last week:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/06/14/the-two-year-task-begins/

Council by-elections

Catch-up on recent council by-elections, showing both Labour making headway in Tory wards, with a spectacular gain in Nottingham, and UKIP surge reaching a safe Labour area:

6th June

Walkergate Ward, Newcastle-upon-Tyne MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1080 (44%, -24), UKIP 668 (27.2%, +27.2), LD 460 (18.8%, -4.2), Ind 64 (2.6%, +2.6), Newcastle First 61 (2.5%, +2.5), Con 54 (2.2%, -3.1), Green 30 (1.2%, +1.2), TUSC 24 (1%, +1), Ind 12 (0.5%, +0.5). Swing of 25.6% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

  

Wollaton West Ward, Nottingham UA. Lab gain from Con. Lab 2211 (46.8%, +11.2), Con 1594 (33.8%, -16.9), UKIP 565 (12%, +12), LD 216 (4.6%, -9), Green 106 (2.2%, +2.2), Militant Elvis 28 (0.6%, +0.6). Swing of 14.1% from Con to Lab since 2011. This is traditionally the safe Tory ward in a constituency the Tories say is one of the 40 they need for an overall majority in the Commons.

30th May

Fazeley Ward, Lichfield DC. Con hold. Con 423 (53%, -6.7), Lab 375 (47%, +6.7). Swing of 6.7% from Con to Lab since 2011.

23rd May

Whitwell Ward, Bolsover DC. Residents gain from Green. Residents 347 (57.5%, +30.4), Lab 256 (42.5%, +19.5). Swing of 5.5% from Lab to Residents since 2011.