Council by-elections

There were six council by-elections yesterday.

Winkfield & Cranbourne Ward, Bracknell Forest UA. Con hold. Con 582 (52.5%, -18.9), UKIP 318 (28.7%, +28.7), Lab 139 (12.5%, -1.4), LD 69 (6.2%, -8.5). Swing of 23.8% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Caddington Ward, Central Bedfordshire UA. Con hold. Con 738 (39.6%, -26.9), Ind 560 (30.0%, +30), UKIP 334 (17.9%, +17.9), Lab 209 (11.2%, -10.2), LD 24 (1.3%, -10.8). Swing of 28.5% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Landward Caithness Ward, Highland UA. Result to follow.

Vassall Ward, LB Lambeth. Lab hold. Lab 1319 (59.8%, +17.4), LD 468 (21.2%, -15.5), Con 153 (6.9%, -4.9), Green 113 (5.1%, -4), UKIP 87 (3.9%, +3.9), TUSC 44 (2%, +2), SPGB 22 (1%, +1). Swing of 16.5% from LD to Lab since 2010. Given this was a split ward with one LD councillor in 2010 this result reinforces the expectation that there will be further Labour gains from the LDs in London in May.

Billinge & Seneley Green Ward, St Helens MBC. Lab hold. Lab 936 (50.7%, -12.5)
UKIP 442 (24%, +24), Con 248 (13.4%, -5.4), Green 94 (5.1%, +0.2), BNP 73 (4.0%, +4), LD 52 (2.8%, +2.7). Swing of 18.3% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Horbury & South Ossett Ward, Wakefield MBC. Lab hold.  Lab 1061 (39.8%, -0.7),
UKIP 856 (32.8%, +22.3), Con 504 (19.3%, -3.5), LD 212 (8.1%, -0.2). Swing of 11.5% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Labourlist post

My Labourlist post on why the poll showing Labour ahead in Thanet South means we should have a more ambitious strategy towards winning in Kent: http://labourlist.org/2013/11/why-labour-needs-a-kent-strategy/

Council by-elections

A rather random collection of results in last night’s five council by-elections, with four of them changing hands:

Pontrilas Division, Herefordshire UA. It's OUR County gain from Con. IOC 429 (46.7%, +25.4), Ind 261 (28.4%, -4.2), Con 229 (24.9%, -21.2). Swing of 10.6% from Ind to IOC since 2011.

Golcar Ward, Kirklees MBC. LD gain from Lab. LD 1591 (47.6%, +11.2), Lab 901 (27%, -12.7), UKIP 450 (13.5%, +13.5), Green 210 (6.3%, -5), Con 189 (5.7%, -6.9). Swing of 12% from Lab to LD since 2012.

Hillmorton Ward, Rugby BC. Con hold. Con 400 (33%, -11.9), Lab 339 (28%, -1.8), UKIP 231 (19.1%, +19.1), LD 221 (18.2%, -0.4), Green 21 (1.7%, +1.7). Swing of 5.1% from Con to Lab since 2012.

Eastfield Ward, Scarborough BC. Lab gain from LD. Lab 310 (48.8%, +19.8), UKIP 175 (27.6%, +27.6), Ind 97 (15.3%, +3.9), Con 32 (5%, -4.7), Green 11 (1.7%, +1.7), Ind 10 (1.6%, +1.6). Swing of 3.9% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Comberton Ward, South Cambridgeshire DC. Con gain from LD. Con 378 (63.4%, +25.9), LD 96 (16.1%, -36.6), Lab 74 (12.4%, +2.6), UKIP 48 (8.1%, +8.1). Swing of 31.3% from LD to Con since 2011.

Council by-elections

There were four council by-elections yesterday including two Labour gains in Cumbria and a loss to an Independent in Stoke, where local politics is extremely idiosyncratic:

Seaton Ward, Allerdale DC. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 464 (40%, +3.6), UKIP 426 (36.7%, +36.7), Con 133 (11.5%, +11.5), Green 108 (9.3%, -4.9), LD 30 (2.6%, +2.6). Swing of 16.6% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Winton East Ward, Bournemouth UA. Con hold. Con 503 (41.8%, +14), Lab 215 (17.9%, -3.2), UKIP 212 (17.6%, +17.6), LD 191 (15.9%, -1.4), Green 48 (4%, -10.8), Ind 34 (2.8%, -5.8). Swing of 8.6% from Lab to Con since 2011.

Seaton Division, Cumbria CC. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 628 (46.8%, +14.8), UKIP 483 (36%, +10.9), Con 107 (8%, +3.2), Ind 98 (7.3%, -26.1), LD 26 (1.9%, +1.9). Swing of 2% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Baddeley, Milton & Norton Ward, Stoke-on-Trent UA. City Ind gain from Lab. City Ind 861 (32.3%, +32.3), Con 504 (18.9%, -3.4), Lab 444 (16.6%, -4.7), UKIP 333 (12.5%, +5.5), Ind 313 (11.7%, -2.5), BNP 79 (3%, -4.5), Green 50 (1.9%, +1.9), LD 32 (1.2%, -2.8), Ind 27 (1%, +1), TUSC 25 (0.9%, +0.9). Swing of 17.9% from Con to City Ind since 2011.

I don’t usually report parish council results but there was a noteworthy Labour gain from Conservative in Sandwich South Ward of Sandwich TC. This is in one of the more Tory components of South Thanet parliamentary constituency and plays to my theory that Labour may stand a chance in this parliamentary seat, which we held 1997-2010, because UKIP and the Tories are evenly splitting the anti-Labour vote. Sittingbourne & Sheppey has a similar 3-way dynamic.

Council by-elections

There were 10 council by-elections yesterday and 1 last week. A solid set of results for Labour. Some comically bad results for the Lib Dems.

  

7 November

  

Kingswood Ward, Corby BC. Lab hold. Lab 722 (63.3%, -8.5), UKIP 246 (21.6%, +21.6), Con 154 (13.5%, -14.7), LD 18 (1.6%, +1.6). Swing of 15.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2011. Tories pushed into third in part of a parliamentary constituency they won in 2010.

Crook Division, Durham UA. Lab hold. Lab 741 (40.4%, +9.6) Ind 496 (27%, -6), Wear Valley Ind 360 (19.6%, -4.4), LD 145 (7.9%, +1), Con 54 (2.9%, +2.9), Green 40 (2.2%, -3.1). Swing of 7.8% from Ind to Lab since May this year when this was a split ward returning 2 Lab and 1 Ind councillors.

Bosworth Ward, Harborough DC. Con hold. Con 259 (54.2%, -21.2), LD 114 (23.8%, +23.8), UKIP 105 (22%, +22). Swing of 22.5% from Con to LD since 2011.

Harrow on the Hill Ward, LB Harrow. Lab hold. Lab 991 (38.9%, +4.9), Con 836 (32.8%, +1.6), Ind 308 (12.1%, -6.7), Harrow First 173 (6.8%, +6.8), UKIP 168 (6.6%, +6.6), LD 70 (2.7%, -14.3). Swing of 1.7% from Con to Lab since 2010. A good result in what was a split ward between Lab and Con in 2010 given the recent political turmoil in Harrow – the Harrow First label are the breakaway ex-Labour councillors who gave council control to the Tories.

Tupsley Division, Herefordshire UA. It’s Our County hold.  IOC 987 (61.3%, +11.7), Con 347 (21.5%, +0.7), LD 277 (17.2%, -0.7). Swing of 5.5% from Con to IOC since 2011.

Dales Ward, Nottingham UA.  Lab hold. Lab 1644 (66.4%, +12.3), UKIP 364 (14.7%, +14.7), Con 220 (8.9%, -9), Green 99 (4%, +4), LD 78 (3.1%, -17.8), TUSC 72 (2.9%, +2.9). Swing of 1.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Radford & Park Ward, Nottingham UA. Lab hold. Lab 1146 (65.2%, +17.1), Con 355 (20.2%, -6.1), UKIP 123 (7%, +7), Green 80 (4.6%, -9.7), Elvis 31 (1.8%, +1.8), TUSC 22 (1.3%, +1.3). Swing of 11.6% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Derby Ward, Sefton MBC. Lab hold. Labour 903 (64.7%, -16.4), UKIP 293 (21%, +7.5), Ind 97 (7%, +7), TUSC 48 (3.4%, +3.4), Ind (actually Con) 29 (2.1%, -0.8), Green 25 (1.8%, +1.8). Swing of 12% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Riverside & Laleham Ward, Spelthorne BC. Con hold. Con 895 (53.3%, -7.3) UKIP 441 (27.2%, +8.4), Lab 227 (14%, +14), LD 56 (3.5%, -15.2). Swing of 7.9% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

  

Chipping Norton Ward, West Oxfordshire DC. Lab hold. Lab 810 (57%, -3), Con 500 (35.2%, -4.8), Green 58 (4.1%, +4.1), LD 53 (3.7%, +3.7). Swing of 0.9% from Con to Lab since 2012. Something of an iconic ward, Cameron's backyard!

31 October

Pillgwenlly Ward, Newport UA. Lab hold. Lab 500 (47.4%, -3.4), LD 233 (22.1%, +12), PC 167 (15.8%, -2.8), Con 155 (14.7%, -5.9). Swing of 7.7% from Lab to LD since 2012.