A blog by Luke Akehurst about politics, elections, and the Labour Party - With subtitles for the Hard of Left. Just for the record: all the views expressed here are entirely personal and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organisations I am a member of.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Local Labour Roundup 2

On an initiative from Theo Blackwell local councillors and campaigners on the blogosphere are running up a ‘Local-Labour’ blog-roundup. This aims to highlight local stories by Labour councillors or campaigners from across the country, or examples of poor policymaking by Conservative or Lib Dems or the SNP in power.

The second edition of this falls to me to produce, so here's my roundup of the best local stories of the last couple of weeks:

Theo himself thinks Ken's Progressive London conference should feature some local government voices.

Ewan Aitken reports on an eight hour long Edinburgh City Council meeting where the SNP and Lib Dems cut funding for voluntary groups and tried to silence objectors to this.

Darlington Councillor Nick Wallis has a good example of how ASBOs work and why they are necessary.

Phil Dilks is shocked to hear that Lincolnshire County Council's review into a case of serious child abuse may not be made public.

Labour Councillors in Lambeth’s Larkhall Ward are campaigning to get residents to cut down on the amount of food they needlessly throw away and to recycle this Christmas trees.

Nigel Knowles reveals that Worcestershire has not really been set alight by the debate about Elected Mayors.

Geoff Lumley looks at the impact of Labour choosing not to field a candidate in an Isle of Wight by-election.

And Louise Baldock has the latest Lib Dem scandal from Liverpool.

If you have any good local posts about what's going on in your area send them to: local_labourblog@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, December 22, 2008

Predictions for 2009

My work colleague Ewan Watt has tagged me to make some predictions for 2009, so here goes, though mine are more of the nature of random guesses and in some cases, wildly optimistic hopes:

  • Labour will narrowly win the Seven Sisters Ward by-election in Haringey on 15 January.
  • Labour will win the Stoke Newington Central Ward by-election in Hackney on 29 January with a swing from Green to Labour. (this bullet point Promoted by Luke Akehurst of Flat 1, 8 Beatty Road, London, N16 8EB on behalf of Louisa Thomson of 81A Farleigh Road, London, N16 7TD. Hosted (printed) by Blogger.com (Google Inc) of 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043 who are not responsible for any of the contents of this post).
  • The Unite/Amicus General Secretary election will be a photo-finish between Kevin Coyne and incumbent Derek Simpson.
  • I will throw myself into contesting a parliamentary selection somewhere, the laws of probability meaning that there must be somewhere I'm keen to stand that isn't an All Women Shortlist.
  • There won't be a General Election in the first quarter of the year.
  • But Labour will edge narrowly ahead in the polls by March.
  • The General Election will be called to coincide with the 4 June Euro Elections - why allow these to happen as stand-alones when they are usually a bad news story for Labour?
  • Labour will emerge as either the largest party in a hung parliament, or with a very narrow overall majority.
  • Labour will make against the tide parliamentary gains in Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow, Manchester Withington, Rochdale and Hornsey & Wood Green.
  • The BNP will win MEPs in a couple of larger regions in the Euro Elections, the results of which aren't declared until the Sunday after the General Election - but fewer than they would have got if the elections had been held separately from the GE and had a lower turnout.
  • Peter Hain and David Blunkett will return to Government.
  • Compass will attack Labour's fourth victory as further evidence of Brown selling-out.
  • All three political parties will end 2009 with the same leaders they started with.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Council By-Election Results

Last night's council by-election results. Some real cliffhangers:

Kells & Sandwith Ward, Cumbria CC. Lab hold. Lab 434 (41.7%, -24.2), BNP 418 (40.1%, +40.1), Con 190 (18.2%, +1.3). Swing of 32.3% from Lab to BNP since 2005.

Thrapston Lakes Ward, E Northants DC. Con hold. Con 475 (63.9%, +3.9), Lab 168 (22.3%, +22.3), UKIP 111 (14.7, -26.2). Swing of 9.2% from Con to Lab since 2007.

Newchurch Ward, Isle of Wight UA. LD gain from Con. LD 389 (39.7%, +39.7), Con 377 (38.5%, -8), Ind 213 (21.8%, +9.4). Swing of 23.9% from Con to LD.

Weston Super Mare Clarence & Uphill Ward, N Somerset UA. Con hold on drawing of lots! Con 477 (27.5%, -33.6), Ind 477 (27.5%, +27.5), LD 421 (24.3%, -4.1), Ind 228 (13.1%, +13.1), Lab 132 (7.6%, -2.9). Swing of 30.6% from Con to Ind since 2007.

Ibstock & Heather Ward, NW Leics DC. Con hold. Con 660 (31.5%, +8.7), BNP 647 (30.9%, +2.7), Lab 614 (29.3%, -1.6), LD 174 (8.3%, -9.9). Swing of 3% from BNP to Con since by-election in January this year.

Glyncoch Ward, Rhondda Cynon Taff BC. Lab hold. Lab 217 (50.5%, -17.7), Ind 143 (33.3%, +33.3), Plaid 47 (10.9%, -20.8), Communist 12 (2.8%, +2.8), Con 11 (2.6%, +2.6). Swing of 25.5% from Lab to Ind since May 2008.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Tweetminster

Interesting innovation - a site where you can follow all the MPs on Twitter: http://tweetminster.co.uk/

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Misdirected begging bowls

I've just had another email from Compass:

"Dear Compass member/supporter [I'm neither!]

I'm writing to ask for your urgent support to help provide the extra resources we badly need to make real change happen.Please show your solidarity to Compass by setting up a regular donation.

We need your support to successfully make the case for a radical progressive agenda by providing us with much needed financial support. Our aim is to raise £15,000 by the New Year to fund a new post in order to increase our organisational capacity in 2009 and add to our small team of just two.

Please donate now. If only 300 people give just £50 each we will reach our target. Compass may not have rich millionaire donors, but we have got you! If we reach our target think how proud we can all feel going away for Christmas and then start the New Year with a spring in our step."

Or alternatively, instead of finding £15k to damage Labour's chances of re-election by organising against its Leadership, engaging in collective navel-gazing conferences and promoting vote-losing policies, 300 people could give £50 each to their local CLP where it will be spent on leaflets that might actually persuade people to vote Labour.

Historic relic or prediction?

As mentioned by Harriet Harman at PMQs:

http://www.williamhague.org.uk/

"The Rt Hon William Hague MP
Leader of the Conservative Party"

NEC Turnout and membership size

A couple of commenters below have asked what the NEC Results say about size of CLPs, and turnout.

You can work out average CLP size from the published data in the Labour Party NEC Report - it's no great secret that it down to about 38% of what it was in 1997, but seems to have bottomed out. The relative size of CLPs to each other seems to be consistent though, as this list of the 20 largest CLPs is almost identical to lists I saw when I worked for the Party in the mid-90s - just that each of them is about 500 members smaller:

Ealing Southall CLP
North Ayrshire & Arran CLP
Bethnal Green & Bow CLP
Holborn & St Pancras CLP
Hornsey & Wood Green CLP
Feltham & Heston CLP
Hampstead & Kilburn CLP
Islington North CLP
Dulwich & West Norwood CLP
Brentford & Isleworth CLP
Camberwell & Peckham CLP
Streatham CLP
Garston & Halewood CLP
Greenwich & Woolwich CLP
Derby South CLP
Nottingham East CLP
Cambridge CLP
Vauxhall CLP
Brighton Pavilion CLP
Hackney North & Stoke Newington CLP

The patterns behind these pockets of very high membership are mainly obvious: a cluster of three in West London with Sikh and/or Hindu mass membership; the equivalent large Muslim membership in Bethnal Green & Bow; Derby S I think is also driven by a large ethnic minority membership; two where I think the driver is people joining through NULSC (i.e. Labour social clubs) - North Ayrshire and Garston; a cluster of 5 neighbouring seats in the Guardian-reading belt of liberal North London; the mirror image cluster of 4 in South London. Brighton and Cambridge are the equivalent areas outside London. I can never remember whether social clubs are a factor in Greenwich & Woolwich but it has been in the 20 largest CLPs since individual membership came in in 1918 - I think Greenwich had the first full-time Agent in the country, pre-WW1, and pioneered individual membership when in the rest of the country you had to join through a union, the ILP, or the Fabians. Nottingham East I don't know about, can anyone explain?

I won't name the 20 smallest CLPs but the pattern is obvious in that they are all in largely rural/agricultural areas: eight in rural Scotland, two in rural Wales, three in the far south west and the others scattered across the south.

As for turnout in the NEC elections it was just under 20% nationally, ranging from a high of 43% down to 8%. The highest turnouts were mainly in small CLPs, the lowest in very large ones where the members have joined to get entry to a social club or vote in council selections rather than because of a passionate interest in the relative fortunes of the Grassroots Alliance or Labour First. I was pleased to note that both the CLPs I have been parliamentary candidate for (Aldershot and Castle Point) were in the 20 highest turnouts.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Where's Rich when you need a comment from him?

Commenter Rich has repeated a mantra for well over a year that Labour is doomed.

I'd like to give him the opportunity to respond to the most recent 5 opinion polls:

ICM - Con 38% (-7%), Lab 33% (+3%)
MORI - Con 41% (-2%), Lab 36% (+4%)
YouGov - Con 41% (+1%), Lab 35% (-1%)
ComRes - Con 37% (-), Lab 36% (-)
Populus - Con 39% (-2%), Lab 35% (-)

What's going on Rich, are the voters suffering from false consciousness? Because these look to me like the kind of scores that, 18 months away from an election, point to a victory for the incumbent Government.

Labour's most leftwing and most moderate CLPs

One for the Labour internal election trainspotters.

If you know where to look you can read the CLP by CLP detail of this year's one-member-one-vote NEC results.

I've done a bit of analysis to produce league tables based on the aggregrate level of % support for the left's Grassroots Alliance slate.

The sensible 20 least "left" CLPs (worst result for the GRA first):

Salford & Eccles CLP (home constituency of candidate Peter Wheeler)
Ealing Southall CLP (home constituency of candidate Sonika Nirwal - also the largest CLP in the UK)
Orkney CLP (admittedly not a huge sample size!)
West Bromwich West CLP
Warley CLP
Ipswich CLP
Glasgow South CLP (well done Tom Harris MP)
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East CLP
Northern Ireland Members
Pendle CLP (home constituency of candidate Azhar Ali)
Rossendale & Darwen CLP (I think this is in the same local authority as Pendle)
East Renfrewshire CLP
Bury South CLP
Liverpool Riverside CLP
Oldham E & Saddleworth CLP
Chelmsford CLP
Old Southwark & Bermondsey CLP
Cheltenham CLP (must be the Brian Hughes effect)
Gainsborough CLP
Clwyd South CLP

And the 20 most supportive of the left slate were (best result for GRA first):
Hereford and South Herefordshire CLP
North Herefordshire CLP
Rochford and Southend East CLP
Stourbridge CLP
Shetland CLP
Bournemouth West CLP
Orpington CLP
East Devon CLP
Newport West CLP
Tatton CLP
New Forest East CLP
Wantage CLP
Bristol East CLP (the Benn factor still in evidence 25 years after he lost the seat?)
Shrewsbury and Atcham CLP
Mid Worcestershire CLP
Broxbourne CLP
Chingford & Woodford Green CLP
Nottingham South CLP (constituency of GRA candidate Christine Shawcroft)
Southend West CLP
Wrexham CLP

Interestingly only 5 of the 20 most pro-GRA CLPs are Labour-held, as opposed to 14 of the 20 who backed the left least.

My own home patch of Hackney was mid-table but in the more moderate half - Hackney North was 405th of 635 CLPs for the left, Hackney South 426th.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Canvassing in SNC

Me and the team (or 1/4 of it) canvassing in the rain in Stoke Newington Central Ward on Saturday:

Saturday, December 13, 2008

ComRes was not a rogue

Lots of Tories wrote off the last ComRes opinion poll - the one showing a 1% Tory lead - as a rogue. Looks like they were wrong as a new ComRes poll tonight shows almost exactly the same figures - Con 37% (unchanged), Lab 36% (unchanged) and LDs 14% (-3%) - which would deliver a Commons majority of about 20 for Labour.

This all seems to tally up with what I'm finding as Agent in a council by-election in a marginal ward at the moment (albeit a Lab vs Green marginal). The seat in question is a mix of two different types of what have historically been core Labour territory - very ethnically mixed streets with some council estates, and then an area of "Guardian-reader" territory (I live there and I read the Guardian!). I've inputted canvass data from about 10% of the electors in the ward recently and it all shows either our core vote holding up or previous undecideds and supporters of other parties moving in our direction. On the estate we hit today a team of 8 of us working for two hours failed to find anyone admitting to supporting another party.

I'm not saying that the final result will reflect that, but for now at least the picture seems to be Labour supporters rallying round the flag.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Council By-election Results

Last night's council by-election results:

Ballochmyle Ward, East Ayrshire UA. Lab hold. First prefs: Lab 1598 (47.9%, -3.7), SNP 1129 (33.8%, +3.8), Con 273 (8.2%, -1), Solidarity 243 (7.3%, +7.3), LD 93 (2.8%, +2.8). Swing of 3.8% from Lab to SNP since 2007.

Parson Drove and Wisbech St Mary Ward, Fenland DC. Con hold. Con 512 (50.1%, -11.7), LD 208 (20.4%, +17.1), Lab 190 (18.6%, +0.3), Green 111 (10.9%, +10.9). Swing of 14.4% from Con to LD since April 2008 by-election.

Northwood Ward, LB Hillingdon. Con hold. Con 1216 (64.4%, -1.1), LD 466 (24.7%, +3.8), Lab 116 (6.1%, +6.1), Green 66 (3.5%, +3.5), NF 25 (1.3%, +1.3). Swing of 2.5% from Con to LD since 2006.

Clipstone Ward, Newark & Sherwood DC. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 326 (43.4%, +7.3), LD 216 (28.8%, +28.8), Ind 157 (20.9%, -22.3), Con 52 (6.9%, -13.8). Swing of 10.8% from Lab to LD since 2007.

Kilbirnie & Beith Ward, North Ayrshire UA. SNP hold. First prefs: SNP 1363 (48.9%, +25.5), Lab 939 (33.7%, -4.4), Con 322 (11.6%, +1.7), LD 94 (3.4%, +0.1), Soc Lab 68 (2.4%, +2.4). Swing of 15% from Lab to SNP since 2007 due to several independent candidates not being in the field this time.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The toughest job in local government?

My friend Claire Kober has drawn the short straw and been elected as Leader of Haringey Council last night.

This means the buck will stop with her for turning round the faults in Haringey's social services identified in last week's OFSTED report, and ensuring that Haringey Council does not allow another horrific tragedy like the Baby P case to take place.

I hope she is successful in leading Haringey to a position where its children's services ensure that all the children in the borough get the protection they need.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Boris assessed

The G2 section of the Guardian has an interesting assessment of Boris' mayoralty so far:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/dec/09/boris-localgovernment

Conclusion:

"Johnson may need a lot of help. Even now, his popularity as mayor could be more apparent than real: astonishingly it has yet to be measured in an opinion poll. And Londoners can quickly tire of their leaders. Just off Tottenham Court Road in the centre of the city, there is a faded mural. It is a rather bleak panorama of London life, painted in 1980: traffic, cranes, dark pubs, grey-faced people. High up in the picture, presiding over the near-chaos, is a flamboyant Tory politician who has been viciously caricatured, as a red-eyed, bow-tied vampire. It is Horace Cutler, the Boris Johnson of his day.

Cutler's administration took office in 1977, governed London with flair, and then ran into a recession and a country-wide revolt against the Conservatives. The year after the mural went up, the Cutler regime was voted out. He soon left politics to pursue other interests."

Monday, December 08, 2008

Tory pomposity and overstatement

Listening to the current range of Tory interventions in the House of Commons banging on with faux outrage about the Damian Green investigation being a threat to democracy, our ancient liberties etc., I am reminded of their predecessor Churchill's disastrous party political broadcast in the 1945 General Election campaign, suggesting Labour would institute a police state, which contributed to Labour's landslide victory that year:

"No Socialist Government conducting the entire life and industry of the country could afford to allow free, sharp or violently worded expressions of public discontent. They would have to fall back on some form of Gestapo, no doubt very humanely directed in the first instance."

The problem is that when you cry wolf by smearing legitimate police inquiries as attacks on liberty and democracy, you reduce the credibility of democratic politicians' warnings about real threats to liberty and democracy.

Attlee's rebuttal speech the next night was pretty good:

"When I listened to the Prime Minister's speech last night in which he gave such a travesty of the policy of the Labour party, I realised at once what was his object. He wanted the electors to understand how great was the difference between Winston Churchill, the great leader in war of a united nation, and Mr Churchill the party leader of the Conservatives. He feared lest those who had accepted his leadership in war might be tempted out of gratitude to follow him further. I thank him for having disillusioned them so thoroughly. The voice we heard last night was that of Mr Churchill but the mind was that of Lord Beaverbrook"

Manchester's c-charge vote

Just as Boris dismantles the western extension to the congestion charge zone, Manchester is going to vote on 11 December on going in the opposite direction:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=7yiDmZYiPCw

Friday, December 05, 2008

Toby Harris on Boris and Damian Green

It's always refreshing to find a blog that is written by someone with real knowledge of an issue rather than just delivering ill-informed rants (I know I'm often guilty of the latter).

Toby Harris, now in the House of Lords, was previously Chairman of the Metropolitan Police Authority and continues to serve on it as the Home Secretary’s representative on the Authority to oversee the national and international responsibilities of the Metropolitan Police, primarily its role in counter-terrorism and security. He has posted three really good pieces in recent days about the Damian Green affair, from the perspective of someone who understands how the Met handles such investigations: here, here and here.

Council By-Election Results

Last night's council by-election results:

Bingley Rural Ward, Bradford MBC. Con hold. Con 1949 (59.9%, -3.1), Lab 689 (21.2%, +4.2), LD 332 (10.2%, -1.4), Green 175 (5.4%, -3.3), Dem Nat 61 (1.9%, +1.9), UKIP 49 (1.5%, +1.5). Swing of 3.7% from Con to Lab since May 2008.

The Three Colnes Ward, Braintree DC. Con hold. Con 647 (77%, +24.6), Lab 121 (14.4%, +4.1), Green 72 (8.6%, +8.6). Swing of 10.3% from Lab to Con since 2007 (previously independent candidates came a strong second in this ward).

Birch & Wintree Ward, Colchester DC. Con hold. Con 745 (58.1%, -12.0), LD 423 (33.0%, +14.1), Lab 83 (6.5%, +0.5), Green 32 (2.5%, -2.5). Swing of 13.1% from Con to LD since May 2008.

Avon and Swift Ward, Rugby BC. Con hold. Con 361 (56.8%, -12.0), LD 153 (24.1%, +8.9), Lab 84 (13.2%, -2.8), Green 37 (5.8%, +5.8). Swing of 10.5% from Con to LD.

Hale End & Highams Park Ward, LB Waltham Forest (2 vacancies). 2 LD holds. LD 1298 and 1295 (44.3%, +2.4), Con 1223 and 1153 (41.8%, +4.6), Lab 264 and 241 (9.0%, -2.3), Green 142 (4.9%, -4.6). Swing of 1.1% from LD to Con since 2006.

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Redwood's solution

John Redwood's solution to the financial crisis: "The truth is that both the UK and the US have to cut living standards."

Is that official Tory economic policy: "you all need to live less well"?

Not serious

Watching the Sky footage of the Shadow Cabinet chortling away I was left with the overwhelming impression that these people are not serious and seem to think the whole Damian Green affair is all a big political game.

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Boris Johnson, biscuit snatcher

I attended my first meeting of the Labour Party's London Regional Board last night. Most of it I won't be blogging about (there's a limited audience for online reports of the rules revision process for the GLLP Biennial Conference) but there was an interesting London Assembly Labour Group report by John Biggs AM.

It seems Boris is making some rather petty cuts. Two examples:

  • He has cut the budget for the biscuits that used to be given to school kids visiting City Hall.
  • The London Living Room (on the top floor of City Hall) used to be available free to charities to host events. Now they have to pay 50% of the rental price - about £2000 - so most of them aren't using a space that was supposed to be accessible to all Londoners.

Stylish and thoughtful budgeting there Boris. Though what we would expect from a Tory Mayor.

VAT cut kicks in

I was a bit taken aback on handing over my £1.30 for a small black coffee in Greggs the bakers, Leather Lane, EC1, this morning, to get 3p change back.

The shop assistant explained this was the 2.5% VAT cut being passed straight on to customers.

So thank you, Alastair. I will, in the interests of the fiscal stimulus, find something to spend my 3p on.

If everyone else spends their 3ps too we might have the desired economic effect.

Monday, December 01, 2008

Can Labour win?

Some interesting observations by Professor John Curtice at an IPPR lunchtime presentation he gave on Monday on whether Labour can win the next General Election:

  • Almost all elections are decided on basis of which party is judged more competent.
  • New Labour in 1997 was almost unique in altering the character of the Labour vote - normally party support distribution stays the same across classes and goes up and down in uniformly according the the competence criteria.
  • To win an overall majority Labour only needs to be level-pegging with the Tories in vote share.
  • The current "bounce" occurred because of Brown's speech at the Labour conference - this lifted the Labour poll share by 5% whereas the bank bailout had no effect on Labour's ratings. Curtice believes that it is the political salesmanship that shifts the polls, not the actual policy decisions. The second stage of Labour's boost was Glenrothes, after which they went up a further 4%.
  • In Scotland the Labour poll trajectory has mirrored that in the UK as a whole but with the SNP profiting from Labour's misfortunes then being hit by the Labour recovery. The Tories can't break the 20% barrier in Scotland.
  • The Labour recovery is only 5-6% on average above the figures from the summer, so Curtice believes Labour is not yet back in contention.
  • Citing the 1966-'70, 1974-'79, 1979-'83, 1983-'87 and 1987-'92 parliaments he said there were multiple precedents for governments recovering from a low point to about 40% within 12 months. Labour might therefore end up level-pegging with the Tories within 6-12 months. However, these kind of recoveries don't guarantee victory (e.g. 1970, 1979). The Brown bounce is not as decisive or strong as the government recoveries generated by decisive events such as the fall of Thatcher or the Falklands War.
  • The British Social Attitudes survey reveals bad news for Labour, as on a raft of questions related to equality, public opinion has been showing a sustained drift to the right - from a high point support for left-of-centre attitudes of 64% in 1994 down to 44% last year. This might change if Labour articulates the equality message more strongly.
  • On tax and spend there is also bad news for Labour as the balance of opinion has now reverted to 1980s levels of hostility to increased taxation and spending.
  • Mori polling on the relative importance of key issues to the public shows the economy is back as the top issue after a decade when it was running fifth in the list. After the 2005 election health and education were high importance issues, as was defence because of Iraq, but now both they and race/immigration are a lot less important to the public. Crime has remained steadily the second most important issue. In 2001-2005 the public services messages Labour had were resonant, but now they are a lot less relevant to the public, who are focused on economic competence.
  • Labour's ratings on economic competence have gone up but these are related to handling a crisis, not raising living standards where the Tories are still ahead. The public seem to want Labour to solve the current crisis, but maybe not then get another four year mandate.
  • "Borrowing" is a very unpopular concept with the public. There is no public understanding of Keynesian economics. Tories can therefore attacking borrowing by implying its level is a proxy for measuring economic incompetence.
  • The score Labour needs to win (34% if the LDs recover to their 2005 position) is a low target so victory might happen. But the climate of public values now favours the Tories. Labour's handling of the financial crisis has started to restore its economic credibility but the task is incomplete.
  • There is too little polling data to understand whether there are different trends in different English regions i.e. whether the Labour recovery is in safe seats or marginals.
  • Long-term structural decline in the Labour vote (because of falling TU membership and de-industrialisation) is no longer a major factor as the decline in size of the working class has now slowed down.
  • Current polling volatility is nothing new - there was extraordinary volatility for the whole period from the late 1960s through to 1983. Even in the '50s 25% of people changed their minds about who to vote for during the month of an election. Curtice said "there are always lots of sheep in the electorate - the party with the best sheepdog wins".
  • Calls for an early election from Labour MPs are crazy - Labour needs to be in contention and stay there for a while, a short term bounce is not enough.
  • However, May 2009 is not early - it's after 4 years. If by Feb/Mar Labour is consistently 2 or 3% ahead then it might be a reasonable gamble to go to the polls in May as you would be betting losing 1 guaranteed year in power against gaining 4/5 more - otherwise better to wait longer.
  • Whereas when he took over Brown's personal reputation required him to get the same 66 seat majority as Blair or better, now he will be seen as a miracle worker if he gets a 1 seat majority.
  • The Tories will have a tough time finding anything they can cut in the public services given the existing tight spending climate.
  • The Lib Dems have a stronger core position than pre-'97. They might get 20% if they fight a good campaign but it is "not proven" that Clegg can deliver this.

Save Alex Hilton for the nation

Alex Hilton needs your cash.

Seriously he is having to fund a legal case over something published on LabourHome.

Read more about this and how to donate here:

http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/11/28/121245/27

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Amicus/Unite Facebook Straw Poll

In the absence of any scientific polling about the current election for General Secretary of the Amicus Section of Unite, here's the number of supporters each candidate has managed to register on their campaign pages on Facebook:


Kevin Coyne - 116 members

Derek Simpson - 113 members

Laurence Faircloth - 99 members

Jerry Hicks - not on Facebook

Paul Reuter - not on Facebook

Saturday, November 29, 2008

More correspondence from the BNP

Along with other Hackney councillors who signed an anti-BNP letter in the local paper, I've had this email from one of their nine members in the borough:

"Dear Mr Akehurst,

my name is Giuseppe De Santis and I'm writing to you in relation to the leaflets delivered by the British National Party in Hackney. Far from being ashamed,I'm a very happy member of this party. Actually I'm the first Italian to become a BNP officer. I see you are very upset about this leaflet and I wonder why,we are a legitimate political party and have all the rights to deliver our message across even if you find it unacceptable. People who don't like our material can throw it in the bin,we are happy with that as we don't force anyone to accept it. You can argue about the extent of anti-white racism but I can tell you it exists and your denial can only bring more support to us as we are the only party willing to talk about this unconfortable [sic] truth. You claim that Hackney is proud of its diversity and so the support for the BNP is very low. I agree with the latter but not with the former. Personally I don't like to live in a multiracial society and I can't recall any politician asking me if I want to be swamped by mass immigration. A lot of people agree with me on that but you won't find them in Hackney as they may have moved in other areas with very few ethnic minorities. As for diversity I can be proud of it but only if no whites [sic] represent just 1-2% of the population in Hackney as well as in London. I expect you to say I'm a racist and a fascist but,as Hazel Blears admitted last week,this will do nothing to stop us given that one of the reason of the growing BNP support is the inability of other parties to listen to people. Also Trevor Phillips understood that attacking us is pointless so much that he asked government to increase help to the white working class. So please don't be shocked if the BNP is getting more and more popular. Thank you for your time.
Your sincerely. GIUSEPPE DE SANTIS"

Three reactions:

1) According to Searchlight magazine Mr de Santis is Italian-born, and moved to London in 2000 as an economic migrant. Isn't it a bit confused/hypocritical for him to denounce "mass immigration"?
2) He must have chosen to live in Hackney. Given that he says "personally I don't like to live in a multiracial society", why choose to live in one of the most multiracial boroughs in London?
3) He wants "no[n] whites [to] represent just 1-2% of the population in Hackney as well as in London"? How does he propose to reduce the "no white" (sic) population of Hackney or indeed London, from its current level (Hackney's ethnic minority population is pushing 50%, though I would be interested to know if Mr de Santis' racism defines Jews, Kurds and Turks as "no white") to 1-2%? The old National Front policy of forced repatriation or some more sinister method? Is reducing the "no white" population of Hackney and London to 1-2% official BNP policy?

Brown enthuses about public services reform

Interesting ... I'm sat listening to Gordon Brown at the Progress conference at the TUC. He's just said that public services reform - specifically personalisation and greater empowerment of service users - is a key priority for him and will be a major feature in the Queen's Speech. This is ideologically highly significant as in the past Brown has been portrayed as not enthused about the public service reform agenda. Those commentators who tried to portray the PBR as the "death of New Labour" seem to have got it badly wrong.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Dale posts back

Iain Dale has posted this response to my post below about Damian Green.

I've commented:

"you say the "thing that most concerns me is the deployment of counter terrorism police and the government's willingness to use counter terror legislation" but a) the legislation was common law not anti-terrorism legislation; and b) the police concerned may sit in the Counter Terrorism Command but that's just an organisational anomaly, these are Special Branch guys who spend all their time investigating crimes connected to politics, they are not counter terrorist police in the way you have implied.

If the BBC reporting of which 4 documents were leaked is true, then a public interest defence is clearly legitimate on some of them, but to my mind the alleged leaking of private correspondence from the whips about expected voting patterns, is, if true, a gross breach of trust and of the duty the civil service to loyally serve the government of the day. Morally, accepting stolen documents where there is no public interest is not much above Nixon's use of burglars at Watergate.

Mr Green should have told his source to only give him documents that the public had an interest in knowing about, not ones that would just confer partisan advantage.

As for Tisdall and Ponting I'm from the bit of the Labour Party that supported Cruise missiles and the sinking of the Belgrano, the 2 issues they were leaking about, so I wouldn't have been any more exercised about their cases than I am about this one."

Since when was the right to nick private documents and use them for party political advantage a fundamental civil liberty?

Council By-Election Results

Council by-election results from last night:

Hardwick Division, Cambridgeshire CC. LD gain from Con. LD 1369 (49.9%, +14.6), Con 1169 (42.6%, +1.3), Lab 208 (7.6%, -7.4). Swing of 6.7% from Con to LD since 2005.

Exminster & Kenton Division, Devon CC. LD hold. LD 1969 (62.5%, +12.1), Con 1182 (37.5%, +0.4). Swing of 5.9% from Con to LD.

Kenn Valley Ward, Teignbridge DC. Con gain from LD. Con 924 (45.4%, +4.1), LD 832 (40.9%, -17.8), Ind 160 (7.9%, +7.9), Ind 120 (5.9%, +5.9). Swing of 11% from LD to Con.

Birchills-Leamore Ward, Walsall MBC. Con gain from Lab. Con 764 (43.9%, +12.9), Lab 661 (37.9%, -16.7), BNP 90 (5.2%, +5.2), LD 72 (4.1%, +4.1), Dem Lab 69 (4%, -2.3), UKIP 52 (3%, +3), Green 34 (2%, -6.1). Swing of 14.8% from Lab to Con since May this year, which is not really surprising given the circumstances that led to the resignation of the incumbent Labour councillor.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Defend the Clapton Square Two!

Another split in the SWP...

One of my constituents in the ward I represent on Hackney Council, Chatham Ward, is John Rees, Clapton Square resident and former National Secretary of Respect.

He has now fallen out with his comrades and been purged from the SWP Central Committee.

Anarchist Ian Bone has been moved to poetry by the political demise of his Leninist opponent at the hands of his fellow Trots.

Tory double standards

Iain Dale is already getting a bit self-righteous about Damian Green being arrested over alleged Home Office leaks.

I wonder what position Iain took on civil servant Sarah Tisdall, jailed for 4 months for leaking documents, or civil servant Clive Ponting, charged but acquitted of a similar offence? Of course it was his hero Margaret Thatcher who ordered their prosecution, so I'm sure he thought it was justified, and didn't huff and puff like he is now.

The sound of whining Tories

It's generally accepted that the House of Commons has a robust style where heckling and barracking is part of the tradition. It was to preserve this intensity of atmosphere, where the mood of the House can make and break political careers (anyone remember Thatcher's anointed successor Health Secretary John Moore, whose career floundered because he got a sore throat and was too easily drowned out by chattering Labour backbenchers? - no, thought not) , that Churchill insisted a small, intimate chamber was rebuilt after the original was bombed in WW2.

George Osborne doesn't seem to be able to cope with a bit of cross-chamber banter - to the extent that he has clearly been whinging to his friends in the press, whose complaints have been echoed by Guido.

Diddums. Is George really cut out for high office if he gets upset about "heckling" from Ian Lucas (one of the mildest mannered and decent MPs I know); naughty Labour MPs outrageously "trying to get him to give way so that they could make interventions" ; the revelation that Mark Tami "chuckled" (what an anti-democratic outrage!); and the facts that Ian Austin "leaned back" (how can you intimate someone by leaning back?) and that Nick Brown "oozed satisfaction"?

Apparently it's now an outrage for Government Whips to do their job by being in the chamber coordinating the Government ranks.

If the House had any respect for Osborne it would hear him out. You can't imagine Ken Clarke being heckled - or caring or complaining to the press if he was. He'd shout right back.

The House has lost respect for Osborne as a person and for his policies, and he has lost the ability to command it.

Time to find a new role more suited to his sensitive nature I think.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

PMQs

PMQs showed there isn't going to be much talk from voters about not being able to tell the difference between the main parties come the next election.

It's quite astonishing just how wedded to laissez faire the Tories have suddenly become, when the response to the downturn is broadly bipartisan in almost every other country.

This isn't quibbling about the details, they seem to have rejected any attempt to reflate the economy, beyond a gimmicky Council Tax freeze - rather meaningless when Labour Councils like my one in Hackney have frozen the Council Tax for several years running, and as Siobhain McDonagh has just told the PM, Labour Groups in places like Merton are proposing a £100 cut to their local Council Tax.

It was good to see the PM remind people of Cameron's experience in Government as Special Adviser to Lamont in the early '90s, when his "special advice" included raising VAT and trying to raise VAT on fuel to 17.5%.

Cameron was as usual polished and well-scripted but lapsed into petulance with his childish and patently daft comment that Brown should "do something useful".

Rather better was Brown's dismissal "I'm sorry I have to give him an economics lecture every week".

Cameron's mantra is now to repeatedly use the phrase "bombshell". This worked in 1992 because Labour was in opposition and no one knew what they would do in power. It won't work this time because by the time the election is fought, the PBR decisions will actually be felt in people's pockets and won't have been a "bombshell" - they will have helped people. By constantly saying "bombshell", Cameron is acting like the boy who cried wolf.

YouGov points to Labour as largest party

Today's YouGov poll, taken after the PBR, puts Labour on 36% (same as at the last General Election), the Tories on 40% and the LDs on 14%. On a uniform swing this would give Labour 313 seats in the Commons (13 short of a majority), the Tories 289, and the Lib Dems 20.

Most people agree that with the exception of ICM, the pollsters are under-reporting Lib Dem support by at least 3%.

I agree but my hunch is that the missing 3% of Lib Dems are primarily in the south and south west and that therefore the negative impact of this will be on the Tories in seats they are trying to win back from incumbent Lib Dems. I would guess that the Lib Dems will hold about 40 seats, leaving the Tories even further behind on about 270 i.e. equivalent to what Kinnock got in 1992.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Canvassing in a winter wonderland

Another by-election looms in Hackney because my colleague Jamie Carswell is stepping down as Deputy Mayor and from the Council.

We seem to specialise in mid-Winter by-elections. Not much fun canvassing in these temperatures.

I think I will have a busy Christmas and New Year as I'm Agent for the constituency in question, and the ward is not without interest to the local Green Party.

My job is to ensure Stoke Newington Central (where I also live) is in the tradition of:

South Defoe - Labour hold - 7 November 1996
Clissold - Labour hold - 22 October 1998
North Defoe - Labour gain - 21st January 1999
King's Park - Labour hold - 13th January 2000
Wick - Labour gain - 12th October 2000
King's Park and Leabridge - Labour holds x2 - 12th December 2002

rather than
Queensbridge - 20 January 2005 - Tory gain
or
Springfield (20 December 2007) Tory hold

The terrain will be familiar to veterans of LB Hackney by-elections as parts of the old South Defoe, Clissold, North Defoe, Rectory and Northwold wards - all sites of notable Labour by-election triumphs, were merged to create the new SNC ward in the 2002 rewarding.

Game on.

More on the London Labour Party Conference

Anyone interested in a bit more detail than I provided below about the London Labour Party biennial conference can read a very full report (in 3 parts) on UNISON activist John Gray's blog: http://grayee.blogspot.com/

Change the Tories don't believe in

Only a couple of weeks ago we had the ridiculous spectacle of David Cameron trying to jump on the Obama "change" bandwagon at PMQs.

Has anyone told the Tories that Obama's economic policy is, like Alistair Darling's, to use a massive fiscal stimulus to try to reduce the impact of the recession?

Change you can believe in. Except the Tories don't believe in it. The US President they take their economic cue on how to respond to a downturn from is Herbert Hoover.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Whatever happened to Tory triangulation?

I thought the Tory gameplan had been to triangulate and steal the centre ground from Labour. This would imply them outflanking Labour to the left by proposing a more vigorous fiscal stimulus package than us. Instead we just get George Osborne squeaking away like someone who swallowed the collected works of Sir Keith Joseph and Milton Friedman. Triangulation, compassionate Conservatism, new Tories, all gone.

Same old Tories. Same old monetarism. Same old refusal to do anything to curb unemployment or help industry or the most vulnerable in society.

Thank goodness they are not in government now. Their non-response to the current situation would turn a crisis into a catastrophe.

Cameron's schoolboy errors

http://www.labour.org.uk/economics_homework

Boy George Osborne

This is timely: http://uk.youtube.com/webshameron

Saturday, November 22, 2008

London Regional Conference

It's been a good day for the forces of light here at the London Labour Party biennial regional conference in Stratford. Maggie Cosin has seen off a challenge from the left's Lucy Anderson for the National Policy Forum. As a consequence of the tactical mistake of quitting her CLP section seat on the regional board to attempt to oust Maggie, Lucy finds herself off the regional board. I've taken a CLP seat on the Board representing north and east London, replacing leftwinger Aktar Beg. In the other competitive races moderates Joanne Milligan and Christine Bowden were elected. 

Full results of the Board elections:

Chair
Len Duvall - elected unopposed

Vice Chair
Linda Perks - elected unopposed

National Policy Forum
Lucy Anderson (left) 24.99%
Maggie Cosin (moderate) 37.13% elected
Patrick O'Keefe (left) 37.88% elected

Disabilities Officer
Sally Mulready
Nick Russell
Rosamund Stock
This election was suspended and will be run by postal ballot instead after one of the candidates tried to take out their opponent by getting their status as a delegate revoked.


Ethnic Minorities Officer
Raj Jethwa 97.96% elected
Narinder Matharoo 2.04%

CLP Section
CLP Division 1 - London North West
Lisa Homan (moderate) - elected unopposed
Chris Payne (moderate) - elected unopposed

CLP Division 2 - London South and SE
Charlie Mansell (moderate) - elected unopposed

Angela Cornforth (left) 5500
Joanne Milligan (moderate) 11000 elected

CLP Division 3 - London North and NE
Luke Akehurst (moderate) 11500 elected
Aktar Beg (left) 2000
Alan Griffiths 1000
Ross Hatfull 2000

Laura Bruni (left) 7000
Christine Bowden (moderate) 9500 elected

CLP Division 4 - London Central
Jenna Khalfan (left) - elected unopposed
Francis Prideaux (left) - elected unopposed

Trade Union Division - 8 seats
Ed Blissett (GMB) 339000 elected
Steve Hart (Unite TGWU) 339000 elected
Stuart King (Unite Amicus) 85000
Amarjit Singh (TSSA) 254000 elected
Alan Tate (CWU) 339000 elected

Leonie Cooper (Unite Amicus) - elected unopposed
Gloria Hanson (UNISON) - elected unopposed
Sheila Thomas (USDAW) - elected unopposed
Rachel Voller (UNISON) - elected unopposed

Co-Op Division - 2 seats
Joe Simpson - elected unopposed
Dora Dixon-Fyle - elected unopposed

Socialist Societies
Huw Davies - elected unopposed

London Young Labour
James Murray - elected unopposed

MEPs
Robert Evans - elected unopposed

MPs
Jon Cruddas MP - elected unopposed
Andrew Dismore MP - elected unopposed

Association of London Govt
Chris Roberts - elected unopposed
Tony Newman - elected unopposed

Friday, November 21, 2008

Decline and fall of the SWP

Some thoughts about the significance of yesterday's by-election, over on Progress:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/Magazine/article.asp?a=3560

Council By-Election Results

Just two council by-elections yesterday:

Teversham Ward, South Cambs DC. LD gain from Con. LD 269 (38.6%, +2.9), Con 237 (34.0%, - 30.3), Ind (former Lab County Cllr for the area) 191 (27.4%, +27.4). Swing of 16.6% from Con to LD since 2007.

Mile End East Ward, LB Tower Hamlets. Lab hold. Lab 1208 (47.3%, +15.1), Con 630 (24.7%, +13.7), Respect 604 (23.7%, -0.3), LD 110 (4.3%, -15.7). Swing of 0.7% from Con to Lab since 2006. This ward returned 2 Labour and 1 Respect councillor in 2006 so holding it with a 15% increase in the vote is a great achievement for my Unite/Amicus colleague Rachael Saunders. Respect dropping to 3rd place is a good sign for Labour's chances in the two Tower Hamlets seats in the General Election. Lib Dems continuing to decline in area where they were strong second as recently as 2002. Recent Tory revival in Tower Hamlets continuing.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Fear and loathing in Islington North

Whispers reach me of a bizarre, and thankfully defeated, attempt at a witchhunt at last night's Islington North Labour Party GC.

The Hard Left in Islington North are getting paranoid and jittery, having long considered their CLP their personal fiefdom, at the emergence of a new generation of activists who are not card-carrying members of the Jeremy Corbyn fan club.

Accused but acquitted of thought crimes against the Islington North Politburo last night were Highbury East members Leo Shulz and Tim McLoughlin.

Apparently their counter-revolutionary activity included denigrating the powers-that-be in their CLP in the comments section of this blog. I understand they are also guilty of excessive canvassing in favour of the national Labour Party, organising too many social events, and associating with known class traitors from Islington's Hodgeite past like James Purnell and Stephen Twigg.

Whether the Islington North ultras will now seek to expel GC delegates who read this website remains to be seen. It may be the only way they can keep a majority next year.

Letter from the BNP

Alongside mislaying their entire membership list, the BNP has been busy sending correspondence to 200,000 people. These included councillors, so I had the misfortune to get a letter from Nick Griffin, enclosing a glossy report alleging that there are widespread "hate crimes against white people", and warning me that ""if you are not prepared to do your duty by the long-suffering Silent Majority who elect you and pay your salaries, don't be surprised when they look elsewhere for someone to voice their very real concerns". I can't say that despite this threat I'm personally expecting a BNP challenger next time I'm up for election, as with only six members in Hackney (or so people who have checked the leaked membership list tell me) they will have trouble finding a candidate for Chatham Ward, but I am concerned that they are mailshotting people in Hackney where there are very harmonious community relations, trying to stir up hatred and fear.

I feel particularly sorry for all the 18 year olds the BNP say they have sent this to - identified by their "date of majority" on the election register. I hope they handle data from the register with more regard to its security than they have the data on their own members.

The BNP certainly seems to have no shortage of cash if it can afford to send 200,000 letters (£54,000 in postage) and print that many full colour 12 A4 page leaflets.

My initial reaction was to ignore the letter and pamphlet so as not to give it additional publicity, but this leaflet is too sophisticated for it to be simply ignored or wished away. It is worth reading it to understand the fears that the BNP are fuelling and playing upon. That way those of us in democratic political parties can develop counter-narratives and arguments for use on the doorstep if canvassers are confronted by these attitudes, fears and prejudices.

The BNP clearly think they’ve been really clever by turning the race hatred motif upside down - in the same way they have, with straight faces, condemned the sacking of BNP members exposed this week as "fascism", but here’s some devil in the detail that I think betrays the continuing neo-Nazi attitudes of the BNP leadership. The sheer amount of text and (especially) the revealing ideologically rooted buzz phrases are not what you’d expect from a conventional rightwing populist party and show that the BNP leadership and its propaganda is still rooted in a far harsher ideology than what they’d have has us all believe.

Buzz phrases in the letter and report will be familiar to students of the propaganda materials of earlier generations of far right politicians here in the UK and abroad:
  • “if you believe the propaganda of the mainstream media or the lies of the old politicians”
  • “the old politicians failed multi-cultural experiment”
  • “our quarrel is not with them but with the politicians…and with the media hacks who conspire to cover up the truth”
  • “the Powers That Be”
  • “undo years of brainwashing by the media and by a racist school system designed to deny our community a sense of pride”
  • “institutionally hostile ruling class”
  • “injustices inflicted upon the majority by the multi-cult” (sic)
  • "ruling political elite”
  • “brow-beating liberal-left propaganda and police bullying”
  • “the demands of the race relations profiteers”

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Obama's Digital Campaign

My boss at Weber Shandwick, former Labour Chief Press Officer Colin Byrne, has some insights into the role of "Inline Communications" in Obama's campaign here.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

US Election results - the detail

Loads of analysis here from the House of Commons library:

http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2008/rp08-084.pdf

Even more Labour opinion poll progress

MORI poll today:

Con 40% (-5%)
Lab 37% (+7%)
LD 12% (-2%)

Labour now above its 2005 General Election score.

Seat calculators predict this would produce a Commons of 322 Labour MPs, 287 Tories and just 13 LDs - Labour only 4 short of a majority.

More here.

Clinging to the same old monetarist dogmas

Cameron's speech today is indicating that if they were in power the Tory response to a global recession would be the same as it was when they were in power in the early 1930s, early 1980s and early 1990s. I.e. do not very much and hope it somehow goes away. Or in the case of Cameron's hero Thatcher in the early '80s privately celebrate the downturn and actively try to accelerate it in order to smash the unions, destroy Labour-voting communities, keep inflation down and restructure the economy.

They don't want to borrow, they don't want to spend and I'd be surprised if they want to cut taxes, despite these Keynesian responses having been proven by history to be the only sane way to respond to a crisis of this magnitude.

They'd rather do nothing - in order to stick to the economic orthodoxies of the Victorian era - while productive workers rot on the dole, communities disintegrate and millions of individual tragedies unfold as workers and their families lose their jobs and homes.

This is how they behaved in the '30s and the '80s and the '90s and this is how Cameron and Osborne would behave now if they were in power.

I suppose this is to be expected - look at where Tory constituencies are and it isn't the communities they represent that go to the wall in a recession when there is a laissez faire government - there's not much danger of any of Cameron or Osborne's relatives or friends or neighbours experiencing unemployment and hence it's perhaps unsurprising that they don't want to do anything significant to stop it happening.

Tibet stabbed in the back

Pretty much unnoticed, allegedly as part of the negotiations around Chinese support for the economic package at the recent G20, David Miliband issued a written ministerial statement at the end of October recognising Chinese sovereignty over Tibet and backing down on the UK's traditional support for an independent Tibet.

I really think this is a dreadful betrayal.

The statement talks about "the anachronism of our formal position on whether Tibet is part of China". I see nothing anachronistic about supporting the independence of a country that was invaded, annexed and colonised.

It concludes: "We have made clear to the Chinese Government, and publicly, that we do not support Tibetan independence. Like every other EU member state, and the United States, we regard Tibet as part of the People’s Republic of China."

It's for the Tibetan people or the Dalai Lama to negotiate away the sovereignty of Tibet in return for autonomy and greater human rights within China, not for the UK to undermine their position with a sordid deal linking unrelated questions - Tibetan freedom and the global financial crisis.

Free Tibet has expressed its outrage that British Foreign Minister David Miliband has changed the UK's position on Tibet, stating that it is part of China. Free Tibet believes that the change in position is a major factor in China's walking away from the Sino-Tibetan talks, which have now collapsed.

I am really ashamed of this announcement. The Tibetan people deserved more steadfast support from the UK.

Boris cuts hit the disabled

Finsbury Park is my nearest tube station so I was interested to see this Early Day Motion published, and shocked at the axe Boris is already taking to transport infrastructure investment in London:


2510
STEP-FREE ACCESS TO FINSBURY PARK STATION
17:11:08

Jeremy Corbyn
Ms Diane Abbott

* 2

That this House is very sad to learn that the Mayor of London's investment priorities for Transport for London (TfL) do not include step-free access for Finsbury Park Station, thus preventing people with disabilities who use the station from accessing the Piccadilly and Victoria lines, or suburban mainline services; believes that the programme of step-free access initiated by TfL before the election of Mayor Johnson was extremely welcome and showed real commitment to giving effect to the Disability Discrimination Act; notes that TfL still intends to spend money on improving the station and capacity, despite the resulting disadvantage to the entire community who would have benefited from step-free access; and accordingly calls upon the Department for Transport to demand an explanation from TfL as to why they are taking this course of action.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Taking the fight to Cameron's backyard

Congratulations to my friend and fellow alumnus of Bristol University Labour Club, former Labour Students National Chair Joe Goldberg, who has been selected as Labour's Parliamentary Candidate against David Cameron in Witney.

I don't think Witney is at the top of Labour's target list as Cameron has a 14,000 majority, but it's important that a strong Labour candidate takes on the Tory Leader to keep them busy defending their own backyard during the General Election.

Joe is an experienced campaigner and I think the right candidate has been picked for the job of taking the fight to Cameron's home patch.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Labour Poll Recovery Continues

YouGov poll in Sunday Times tomorrow:

Con 41% (-1%)
Lab 36% (+3%)
LD 14% (-1%)

This puts Labour back on exactly the same score it got when it won the 2005 General Election - the difference being that the Lib Dem vote has slumped 8% and the Tories have gained the same (though there is probably lots of churn - anti-war 2005 LD voters returning to Labour, compensating for swing voters going from Lab to Con).

In a General Election the seat calculator sites say our strange electoral system would, on these scores, make Labour the largest party with 304 seats, the Tories would get 302 and the LDs just 16. In reality I expect the LDs would hold on to a few more due to incumbency, reducing the Tory total a bit.

These are the sort of numbers Cameron will not want to see 18 months out from an election given governments usually recover in the final section of a term of office.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Compass: No enemies to the left?

Soft left faction Compass seems to have a remarkably lax approach to who can contribute to its website. This article is by Salma Yaqoob. You wouldn't know it as Compass don't explain who she is, but this is the same Salma Yaqoob who is a Respect Councillor, is de facto number 2 to George Galloway in Respect, came within 4,000 votes of becoming a Respect MP. Harry's Place has catalogued what her rather nasty political views are.

Is there anyone Compass wouldn't publish the views of? (me probably!)

Republican reaction to losing

The British press seem to have largely missed the extraordinary - indeed bonkers - reaction to Obama's victory by the far right of the Republicans.

According to Associated Press, Republican Congressman Paul Broun (from Georgia's 10th District where he was just reelected with about 70% of the vote) said on Monday:

"It may sound a bit crazy and off base, but the thing is, he's the one who proposed this national security force, I'm just trying to bring attention to the fact that we may — may not, I hope not — but we may have a problem with that type of philosophy of radical socialism or Marxism."

"That's exactly what Hitler did in Nazi Germany and it's exactly what the Soviet Union did," Broun said. "When he's proposing to have a national security force that's answering to him, that is as strong as the U.S. military, he's showing me signs of being Marxist."

He added: "We can't be lulled into complacency. You have to remember that Adolf Hitler was elected in a democratic Germany. I'm not comparing him (Obama) to Adolf Hitler. What I'm saying is there is the potential of going down that road."

Can Labour really win the next general election?

Yes we can, says Douglas Alexander.

Council By-Election Results

Last night's council by-election results:

Fenside Boston Ward, Boston BC. BNP gain from Boston Bypass Ind. BNP 279 (42.9%, +42.9), BBI 141 (21.7%, -21.6), Con 119 (18.3%, n/c), Lab 64 (9.8%, -14), UKIP 24 (3.7%, -10.9), LD 23 (3.5%, +3.5). Swing of 32.3% from BBI to BNP since 2007.

North Road Ward, Darlington UA. LD gain from (former LD) Independent. LD 561 (50.8%, -4.2), Lab 262 (23.7%, n/c), Con 115 (10.4%, -1), BNP 106 (9.6%, -0.3), Ind 60 (5.4%, +5.4). Swing of 2.1% from LD to Lab since 2007.

Markfield Ward, Hinckley & Bosworth DC. Con hold. Con 637 (35.2%, -0.1), Lab 521 (28.8%, -11.7), LD 390 (21.5%, +12.8), BNP 263 (14.5%, -1). Swing of 5.8% from Lab to Con since 2007.

Coronation Ward, Wokingham UA. Con hold. Con 850 (53.2%, n/c), LD 675 (42.2%, +4.5), UKIP 74 (4.6%, -0.2). Swing of 2.3% from Con to LD since 2007.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

The most influential people in local government

The Local Government Chronicle has published its annual list of the 50 most influential people in local government.

The Labour names in the list are as follows - interesting that 2 of the 8 Labour Councillors or Mayors in the list are from my own borough of Hackney:

1) John Healey MP, Local Govt Minister
4) Rt Hon Hazel Blears MP, DCLG Secretary of State
6) Cllr Sir Richard Leese, Leader, Manchester City Council
11) Rt Hon Bev Hughes MP, Children's Minister
14) Cllr Sir Jeremy Beecham, Leader, LGA Labour Group
21) Rt Hon Ed Balls MP, DCSF Secretary of State
24) Geoff Mulgan, Director, Young Foundation
31) Cllr Steve Houghton, Leader, Barnsley MBC
34) Cllr Sharon Taylor, Leader, Stevenage BC
38) Cllr Jamie Carswell, Deputy Mayor, LB Hackney
39) Heather Wakefield, Head of Local Govt, UNISON
40) Chris Leslie, Director, New Local Govt Network
41) Sir Steve Bullock, Mayor of LB Lewisham
45) Jules Pipe, Mayor of LB Hackney
48) Cllr Clyde Loakes, Leader, LB Waltham Forest

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Job ad of the week

Tory PPC for marginal seat requires Assistant Campaign Manager and Assistant Press Officer who can do the following:

"Don’t worry about facts. We are looking for: good writing skills, inventiveness, the ability to cut to the salient points, being able to put forward a persuasive argument and to present the candidate in a strong and positive way. You can draw in other imaginary or real elements in order to do this."

and can deal with scenarios like this one:

“A UFO has landed in Northampton North and some 4500 very small green aliens are running around causing havoc. They are eating their way through people’s gardens, as roses are their staple diet. There is chaos in Northampton North and the people are calling out for action.”

Interested? Apply here: http://www.w4mp.org/html/personnel/jobs/disp_job.asp?ref=16818

Monday, November 10, 2008

Some good news for Labour

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/11/10/populus-has-tory-lead-down-to-6/

Quote from the post above on politicalbetting.com:

"CONSERVATIVES 41% (-4)
LABOUR 35% (+5)
LIB DEMS 16% (+1)
In what is by far and away the best poll for Labour for more than six months the November Populus poll for the Times has last month's Tory lead of 15% down to just 6%.  This is a very big change and means that the pollster is showing a very different picture from ICM which reported at the weekend.  Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and we get CON 302: LAB 292: LD 27 seats - so Brown's party is just seats behind and Cameron is 23 seats short of an overall majority."

Unite/Amicus runners & riders

I was going to post something trying to explain the runners and riders for the current election for General Secretary of the Amicus section of Unite, and why the election is happening, but Gill George of the Socialist Workers Party has blogged about this already so I will limit myself to linking to her description of what is going on (obviously without endorsing the political views she is expressing).

Oddly, left caucus Unity Gazette (http://unitygazette.org.uk/) which backed Derek Simpson against Sir Ken Jackson is now not backing Derek, nor ex-SWP activist Jerry Hicks, but instead supporting Laurence Faircloth, with most of the online cheer leading being done by Westmorland & Lonsdale Labour Parliamentary Candidate John Wiseman (http://wisemanleft.blogspot.com/) who unfortunately cannot spell his favoured candidate's name.

Will the real left candidate please stand up?

UPDATE: there's another take on the election here (from yet another faction of the left): http://www.dearunite.com/

Finchley candidate

Not seen this reported elsewhere on the Labour blogosphere so worth noting that Barnet Labour Group Leader Alison Moore was selected on the first round of voting on Thursday night as Labour Parliamentary Candidate for Finchley & Golders Green, where MP Rudi Viz is retiring at the General Election. Boundary changes make this one of the most marginal Labour seats in the country with a notional majority of only 31 votes (0.1%). Good luck to Alison in defending this key seat of key seats.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Council by-elections

Glenrothes wasn't the only by-election last night. There were also these 4 council by-elections:

Forth Ward, Edinburgh CC. Lab hold. 1st pref votes: Lab 2013 (29.5%, +0.5), SNP 1841 (27%, +4.3), Con 1180 (17.3%, -2.9), LD 985 (14.5%, -3.4), Green 341 (5%, -0.8), Ind 297 (4.4%, +2.6), Solidarity 80 (1.2, -0.6), SSP 53 (0.8%, n/c), Ind 26 (0.4%, +0.4). Swing of 1.9 % from Lab to SNP since 2007.

Ballieston Ward, Glasgow CC. Lab hold. 1st pref votes: Lab 2257 (46.9%, +5.2), SNP 2027 (42.1%, -2.5), Con 225 (4.7%, -0.3), LD 142 (2.9%, -0.2), SSP 88 (1.8%, +0.7), BNP 46 (1.0%, -0.4), Green 32 (0.7%, -0.2). Swing of 3.9% from SNP to Lab since previous by-election this summer. This is a ward in Glasgow East where the SNP won both the parliamentary by-election and consequent council one just a few months ago.

Whissendine Ward, Rutland CC. Ind gain from Con. Ind 154 (41.3%), Con 148 (39.7%) , LD 71 (19%). Uncontested Con in 2007.

Valley Ward, LB Waltham Forest. Con hold. Con 1183 (50.2%, -9.5), LD 734 (31.2%, +10), Lab 439 (18.6%, -0.5). Swing of 9.8% from Con to LD since 2006.

Labour wins Glenrothes

Congratulations to new MP Lindsay Roy and the by-election team headed by Gordon Banks and Jim Murphy on a stunning and totally unexpected 6700 majority for Labour in Glenrothes. Labour's vote is actually up 3% on the last General Election.

This must be one of the best by-election results for an incumbent government in one of their own seats for decades, quite apart from wiping the smug smile off Salmond's face and making his "yes we can" quotes in the last two days look absurd. It fully justifies Gordon Brown's courage in deciding to break convention and campaign in the seat.

Elsewhere in Scotland Labour also beat the SNP in council by-elections in Edinburgh's Forth ward and Glasgow's Baillieston ward (part of Glasgow East). I'll post the full results tomorrow.

Two great election nights in one week!

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Cameron & co on McCain & Palin

Let's not forget that our British Tory bunch of losers are joined at the hip with their US official sister-party Republican bunch of losers. They must feel pretty gutted today:

Cameron on McCain:

David Cameron, speaking at a dinner hosted by Barclays Capital at the World Economic Forum in Davos January 27 2008:
“Every generation has to fight and win the argument for free trade and open markets. Just look at the presidential election in the US.
“On both sides of the political divide, there are candidates advocating protectionist policies. There is one clear exception - and I admire him a great deal for his stance. Senator John McCain did my party the great honour of addressing our annual conference two years ago, and we saw then the courage and conviction that saw him go to Michigan and tell the voters directly that the old jobs weren’t coming back and that protectionism was no answer to today’s economic problems. He didn’t win the primary, but he certainly won a lot of respect.”

David Cameron speaking to Time magazine January 24 2007:
“The Conservative Party has also always had a number of good contacts with the Democrats, and we should have contacts with both sides but obviously the Republicans are our sister party. We’re together in the International Democratic Union and other bodies and there are good and strong ties there.”

But now he's singing a different tune suddenly (wonder why?):
David Cameron, November 5 2008:
“In these difficult times people everywhere are crying out for change. Barack Obama is the first of a new generation of leaders who will deliver it - he has my whole-hearted congratulations.”

Shadow Cabinet Member Francis Maude on McCain:
In the Times:
"I'm a strong supporter of McCain. But I think this is shaping up to be a very even race and we need to be in good shape with whoever wins the presidency. There is certainly a lot to be learnt from Obama - he's an interesting guy.”

In http://www.publicservice.co.uk/news_story.asp?id=7483 on 24 October 2008:
"Former Conservative Party chairman Frances Maude has predicted that Republican candidate John McCain will win the US election, writes Dean Carroll. Maude said he thought that McCain would serve only one term, which would then be followed by a presidential election battle in four years time between Sarah Palin and Hilary Clinton. Having attended the Democratic Convention in Denver, Maude added: "It was a most amazing event and Barack Obama is a formidable performance artist. I was one of his 85,000 closest friends in the stadium when he made his keynote address."

Shadow Defence Secretary Liam Fox on McCain:
Interview for his local paper the Clevedon Mercury:
"While waiting for Dr Fox to prepare for a defence briefing for the regional Press in his Portcullis House office, which used to be David Cameron's, his Atlanticist beliefs are clear. Stickers for John McCain's US presidential election campaign, a detailed map of Afghanistan, pictures of himself with George W. Bush and Air Force One"

Liam Fox on Sarah Palin:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/09/thoughts-on-the.html#more
""From the time she became John McCain’s surprise running mate the Republican convention knew that the performance of Governor Sarah Palin would be pivotal. And she nailed it."

Louise Bagshaw, Tory A-List PPC for Corby and East Northamptonshire:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/09/sarah-palin-and.html
I find her presence of mind and dedication to duty amazingly impressive."
"It's the political brilliance of the announcement that they kept it quiet for so long."
"There's lots more as to how he made this fantastic selection."

Not sure I agree Hazel

Usually I agree with Hazel Blears but I'm not sure I do when it comes to her comments yesterday on blogging:

"We are witnessing a dangerous corrosion in our political culture... Perhaps because of the nature of the technology, there is a tendency for political blogs to have a 'Samizdat' style. The most popular blogs are rightwing, ranging from the considered Tory views of Iain Dale, to the vicious nihilism of Guido Fawkes. Perhaps this is simply anti-establishment. Blogs have only existed under a Labour government. Perhaps if there was a Tory government, all the leading blogs would be left-of-centre?"But mostly, political blogs are written by people with disdain for the political system and politicians, who see their function as unearthing scandals, conspiracies and perceived hypocrisy." Until political blogging 'adds value' to our political culture, by allowing new voices, ideas and legitimate protest and challenge, and until the mainstream media reports politics in a calmer, more responsible manner, it will continue to fuel a culture of cynicism and despair."

I think this rather misses the point. If politicians didn't misbehave, Guido wouldn't have anything to write about. He reflects public cynicism about the political class - largely self-inflicted by politicos who have behaved badly - rather than generating it. People read Guido in large numbers because he breaks stories which mainstream journalists or their editors are too risk-averse to run with, and because it is an entertaining, funny read. Blaming Guido for cynicism about politics sounds like the MacMillan era Tories blaming That Was the Week That Was and Private Eye for public disrespect post-Profumo.

Guido's personal attacks on the PM are deeply unpleasant - and for Labour supporters like me actually reinforce our sympathy and loyalty to the man - and his commenters are often from the loopier fringes of the right, but his own politics aren't nihilistic, as far as I can work out he is a libertarian, which is a legitimate philosophy to hold even if I disagree with it.

The vast majority of blogs are not "written by people with disdain for the political system and politicians" - mainly they are written by people who are part of the political system or politicians themselves. Unfortunately, the majority of this majority of blogs are painfully dull so no one reads them, whereas Guido at least entertains and informs his audience so people do read him.

The irony is that Hazel's forthright opinions would actually make her a brilliant blogger who people would want to read and comment on.

Labour people need to get stuck in start blogging if they don't like the existing culture of the blogosphere, rather than strike this kind of despairing note.

The skateboarding candidate?

Congratulations to Clyde Loakes, who was selected as Labour PPC for Northampton South at the weekend by a two vote margin. On the new boundaries this has flipped back to being a very marginal Labour-held seat.

Clyde should be able to handle the rather messy local politics in Northampton (including the former Labour MP Tony Clarke running as an Independent) having successfully navigated his way through equally treacherous waters in Waltham Forest, where as the only council leader in the country to list their hobby as skateboarding, he has helped bring major service improvements to what was a failing authority.

That result

That was worth staying up for - though I slept through the first few hours of the results programme recovering from yesterday evening's very jolly Hackney North Labour Party fundraising dinner with Ken Livingstone, who was on good form (before the dinner he told me how his political career was shaped by beating the then John Smith-Special Adviser Vince Cable 24-20 for the parliamentary selection in Tory Hampstead, which meant he was unavailable to run for MP in Hackney North, the seat he had already been selected for for the GLC, when David Weitzman unexpectedly resigned in 1979. Ken told me he had been so miserable and felt his time so wasted by the 14 years he did spend as an MP he was grateful to have avoided getting a safe seat 8 years earlier).

Back to Obama though, I wasn't a fan during the primary season but I freely admit to being choked up during his acceptance speech this morning.

There are clearly a lot of practical lessons Labour here in the UK needs to learn from the Obama campaign about mobilisation of campaigners and voters - but I hope we don't get too carried away as the paradigm is a lot different - in our next election we will be the incumbents, not the insurgents, we don't have any politicians here with the capacity to generate the personal fan base Obama has, and here the demographic trends resemble those of 20 years ago in the US - the continued growth of suburbia and the conservative south, not the more recent changes in demography (and voter registration) in the US that helped make Obama competitive in a number of southern and western states.

I hope that the usual suspects will understand that like other leaders - Blair and Clinton - elected on a wave of hope, Obama is inevitably going to have to take tough decisions that will disappoint his more idealistic supporters - maybe even go to war - and that the left's favourite narrative of "betrayal" doesn't get rehearsed too quickly.

One final note - the CNN coverage was brilliant (web version here: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/) - serious, authoritative and fact based - and avoided the BBC's absurd and childish Jeremy Vine graphical gimmickry we have seen in recent UK elections in favour of graphics that just clearly illustrated the results. BBC please note for future UK elections.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Tory candidates are dropping like flies

Tory candidates are dropping like flies:

1. Jill Skalla was the Tory candidate for Colchester (LD Majority of 6000). She resigned in August citing “work and family responsibilities”.

2. Simon Rouse was the Tory candidate for Nuneaton (Lab majority 3843). He resigned in July again citing family reasons. "It is with great regret that Nuneaton Conservatives have to announce that Simon Rouse has tendered his resignation as the Conservative Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Nuneaton. Sadly, Simon has decided that the inevitably heavy demands upon him as a candidate for a seat as important as Nuneaton are incompatible with his responsibility to his family”.

3. Elly Jupp was the Tory candidate for Hayes & Harlington. She resigned in October saying "It is with deep regret that I today announce that I will not stand as the Conservative candidate for Hayes and Harlington at the next General Election. I remain determined the Conservatives win this seat. I don't want to go into the detail of my decision other than to say it is for personal reasons”.

4. John Woodward resigned as the Tory candidate for Camborne and Redruth in October, citing the economic downturn. The Tories are in third place in this three way marginal seat, (2005 results; Con 12644, 14861 Lab, 16747 LDs).

5. Kevin Hollinrake resigned as the Tory candidate for Dewsbury in October saying he has resigned to concentrate on his business. Kevin Hollinrake is founder and head of the Yorkshire estate agents Hunters Property Group. He was selected to fight the seat last July. Labour MP Shahid Malik's notional majority in the constituency is slightly less than 5,000.

6. David Potts has resigned as the Tory candidate in Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling’s seat). In September ‘The Evening News’ revealed that he was facing deselection by the local association who were unhappy at his alleged failure to turn up at events. But now Mr Potts, 25, has written to the local party saying he is resigning. In his letter, he said: "You will be aware of the health issues concerning my father, which has challenged my ability to service the constituency as much as I would have hoped." He also cited "strong commitments in Tyneside".


7. Alf Doran resigned as the Tory candidate in Chorley in May. The local association said “Alf Doran had to retire from the Police service having been involved in a motorcycle accident in the early 1990’s; from this further medical attention is now required. Because of the unpredictability of the timing of the future treatment with extended convalescence, Alf has considered that his treatment would harm the prospects of an effective election campaign here in Chorley."

Could a poll from the ‘ConservativeHome’ website shed some light on the phenomenon?
A ConservativeHome survey of 125 adopted candidates tested the quality of support that they receive:
·67% said mutual aid from other associations was poor or very poor.
·59% said the timeliness of financial support from CCHQ was poor or very poor.

There is clearly a problem with the Tory candidates not getting the support they expect from their party, after all, not all of them have a spare £90,000 a year to fund their own campaign as Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park reportedly does.

Perhaps the new ‘A List’ candidates without much background in the party didn’t know what they were letting themselves in for when they put themselves forward for selection?

But is there something else slightly more unusual going on? Could Conservative Central Office or Tory paymaster and Deputy Chairman Lord Ashcroft be conducting a purge of candidates that no longer fit the bill, withdrawing their support from candidates who are not making the grade organisationally or whose faces don’t fit politically?

Electoral College Calculator

This is a neat little toy for calculating scenarios for tonight's vote:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,1,6739961.htmlstory

My personal prediction is for the following states to switch into the Democrat column: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia - a 311-227 Obama victory.

But I have to confess to being completely nervous about this one - it just feels too good to come true.

Monday, November 03, 2008

Cameron's C Team

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9JSC_ztAsM

Banned in Turkey

A friend who tried to check this blog from Turkey got the following message (persumably due to me spending too much time eating in several of Stoke Newington's great Kurdish cafes and restaurants):


"Bu siteye erişim mahkeme kararıyla engellenmiştir.
T.C. Diyarbakır 1. Sulh Ceza Mahkemesi 20.10.2008 tarih ve 2008/2761 sayılı kararı gereği bu siteye erişim engellenmiştir.
Access to this web site has been suspended in accordance with decision no: 2008/2761 of T.R. Diyarbakır 1st Criminal Court of Peace."

Friday, October 31, 2008

Accuracy and The Guardian

This article - http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/31/glenrothes-byelection - in the Guardian says that the PM has been in Glenrothes to  "capitalise on signs that Labour could be close to winning its first byelection since he became party leader".

This is strange as I can remember Labour winning the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections already under Brown as leader.

Council by-election results

Last night's council by-election results:

Workington St Johns Ward, Allerdale DC. Lab gain from Con in a split ward. Lab 452 (35.6%, -14.7), Con 394 (31%, -18.7), BNP 257 (20.2%, +20.2), Ind 113 (8.9%, +8.9), Green 55 (4.3%, +4.3). Swing of 2% from Con to Lab since 2007.

Hutton S Ward, Brentwood BC. Con hold. Con 686 (73.4%, -5), LD 199 (21.3%, +6.4), Lab 50 (5.3%, -1.4). Swing of 5.7% from Con to LD since May this year.

Kentish Town Ward, LB Camden. LD hold. LD 939 (36.5%, -1), Lab 863 (33.5%, +6.7), Green 518 (20.1%, -7.8), Con 171 (6.6%, -0.2), BNP 62 (2.4%, +2.4), UKIP 21 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 3.9% from LD to Lab since Dec 2006 by-election. Labour regains second place from Greens as they no longer had Sian Berry as candidate, but LD vote surprisingly resilient despite resignation of sitting cllr over the Arizonagate scandal.

Thame N, S Oxfordshire DC. Con hold in a split ward. Con 423 (50.5%, +8.2), LD 287 (34.3%, -9.5), Lab 127 (15.2%, +1.3). Swing of 8.9% from LD to Con since 2007.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Allegory of good and bad government

Being a local government geek I couldn't resist a holiday visit today to Siena's beautiful 13th century town hall, the Palazzo Pubblico, to see Lorenzetti's "Allegories of Good and Bad Government".

This 1338 fresco was commissoned to remind councillors of the effects on the city of the conduct of their duties.

The panels showing "bad government" look remarkably like Hackney in the 1996-2001 hung council period - a tyrannical figure at the heart of the borough, uncollected rubbish, discord and strife in the council chamber, poor street lighting, potholes, probably outsourced revenue and benefits to the private sector, etc.

The "good government" ones are in turn rather similar to Hackney under Labour since 2001 - justice and wisdom prevail at the town hall, leading to clean streets, effective recycling, new public buildings and civic happiness. I think I could even spot a mediaeval Tuscan trading standards officer prosecuting a market trader for using the wrong weights and measures.

Cllr Smith and I have bought a print of the "good government" allegory to sit on our living room wall and remind us of our civic duties. Cllr Smith suggests that as part of the 2012 Cultural Olympiad Hackney artists - perhaps Banksy? -  should be asked to compete to produce a modern version of the fresco for our own town hall.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Mountain marathons

This weekend I was glad to be sat in restaurants in Siena, enjoying a glass or two of Chianti Classico and some bistecca fiorentina in 27c sunshine, rather than competing like I used to in the Original Mountain Marathon (known in my day as the Karrimor).

Many people will have seen on the news (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/7691893.stm) that the race  was a bit damp this year.

My brother and his wife were competing this year so I am particularly relieved everyone got off the mountain safely - though my brother says the situation was exagerated by the media and the only reason competitors appeared to be "missing" was because it was difficult to reach race HQ through 4 feet of water to check back in.

Between the ages of 16 and 21 I competed in 5 of these annual mountain marathons, completing 3 (Howgills, Argyll and Galloway) and pulling out of the others because of snow in one case and injury in the other. The race involves navigating 26 miles - in the easiest "class" - as the crow flies (further in practice) with an overnight camp.

Any criticism of the organisers on safety grounds is well off the mark as they enforce rigid regulations about the survival clothing, kit, tent and food you carry and are themselves fell-runners with decades of experience.

One day I hope to return to the level of fitness to do a mountain marathon again - I'm glad it wasn't this year I tried.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Council by-elections

Thursday night's council by-election results - rather belatedly as I am on holiday::

Charnwood DC, Loughborough Disgley and Hathern Ward. Lab hold. Lab 838 (49.7%; +5.0), Con 490 (29.1%; -9.7), BNP 234 (13.9%; -2.6), LD 107 (6.4%; +6.4), National Front 16 (0.9%; +0.9). Swing of 7.4% from Con to Lab since 2007. In a Labour-held parliamentary marginal.

Chichester BC, E Wittering Ward. Con hold. Con 410 (40.3%; +6.6), LD 364 (35.8%; +7.0), BNP 125 (12.3%; +12.3), Lab 69 (6.8%; -0.4), UKIP 49 (4.8%; +4.8). Swing of 0.2% from Con to LD since 2007.

East Devon DC, Alderholt Ward. Con hold. Con 499 (53.0%; -12.5), LD 442 (47.0%; +19.7). Swing of 16.1% from Con to LD since 2007.

Hambleton DC, Whitestonecliffe Ward. Con hold.  Con 343 (75.2%), Ind 113 (24.8%). Uncontested in 2007.

Merthyr Tydfil CBC, Town Ward. Lab gain from LD. Lab 580 (35.7%; +16.7), LD 461 (28.4%; -18.1), Ind 277 (17.0%; -1.8), Ind 125 (7.7%; +7.7), Ind 110 (6.8%; +6.8), Plaid 72 (4.4%; -11.3). Swing of 17.4% from LD to Lab this May.

Ribble Valley BC,  Billington and Old Langho Ward. Con gain from LD. Con 350 (61.1%; +10.3), LD 181 (31.6%; -17.6), Lab 42 (7.3%; +7.3). Swing of 14% from LD to Con since 2007.

Spelthorne BC, Ashford East Ward. Con hold.  Con 858 (51.7%; -1.4), LD 452 (27.3%; +13.4), UKIP 185 (11.2%; +11.2), Lab 163 (9.8%; -3.1). Swing of 7.4% from Con to LD since 2007.

LB Westminster, Lancaster Gate Ward. Con hold. Con 805 (60.3%; -4.4), LD 325 (24.3%;+6.6), Lab 205 (15.4%; -2.3). Swing of 5.5% from Con to LD since 2006.

Wolverhampton MBC, Wednesfield North Ward. Con hold. Con 1295 (45.3%; +0.1), Lab 1072 (37.5%; +3.0), BNP 337 (11.8%; -3.6), LD 156 (5.5%; +0.5). Swing of 1.5% from Con to Lab since 2007.

Wolverhampton MBC Wednesfield South Ward. Con hold. Con 1123 (45.2%; -16.1), Lab 867 (34.9%; +8.0), BNP 358 (14.4%; +14.4), LD 134 (5.4%; -1.4). Swing of 12.1% from Con to Lab since 2007.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Brace ourselves for Glenrothes

It was good to see Sarah Brown campaigning in the Glenrothes by-election yesterday - following her introduction to Gordon's conference speech she is clearly seen by voters as a major asset to Labour.

At my own rather more humble level in the Labour Party, my partner Linda did some phone canvassing for the by-election campaign yesterday and reported a high level of Labour support. Apparently the key local issue cited to her was "bucket collections" (which translates for those of us South of the Border as rubbish bin collections). Labour Candidate Lindsay Roy seemed to be personally known to the majority of electors she spoke to because of his high profile as a local head teacher.

But although we have a great candidate, and are clearly putting the work in, and there are anecdotal accounts of good canvass returns that I have heard from Linda and others, having spoken to people with a strategic overview of the campaign I am sorry to say that I have to chuck a bucket of cold water over the flames of optimism.

The overall picture from the doorsteps of Glenrothes is that Labour and the PM are a lot more popular than we were at the time of the Crewe and Nantwich or Glasgow East by-elections, but that this is being trumped by the continued electoral honeymoon of Alex Salmond's SNP administration in Scotland. The chances of us holding this seat are, unfortunately, minimal.

Labour folk from the PLP down need to get their heads round that so that the 6 November result is not a shock or trauma that drives us back into the kind of panic that existed before Conference, but something that as a professional political party we have anticipated, planned for, and can take in our stride.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Happy Wednesday

Channel 4 YouGov poll of marginals (quote from C4 website):

"The recent financial turmoil has boosted Labour's standing in the polls, according to part two of our Channel 4 News/YouGov Facing the Crunch poll.

The Tory lead over Labour in key battleground seats has reduced from 13 to just five points since the recent economic troubles, according to an exclusive poll released today.A Channel 4 News poll carried out by YouGov in early September predicted a Tory landslide, suggesting the Conservatives could win power with a 150-seat majority.But today's poll of the same seats shows Labour's share of the vote increased from 32 to 38 per cent. Forty three per cent of voters would plump for the Conservatives, down from 45 per cent last month.Just 12 per cent go for the Lib Dems, down from 13 per cent in the last poll.These new results would, YouGov estimates, give the Tories a 50-60 seat majority if repeated at the next general election
."

IPSOS/MORI Monthly poll:
Con 45% (down 7%)
Lab 30% (up 6%)
LD 14% (up 2%)

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Why I am proud to be Labour

Because, according to today's OECD report on inequality (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/47/22/41528630.pdf):

"Since 2000, income inequality and poverty have fallen faster in the United Kingdom than in any other OECD country."

Now that's what I call a democratic socialist government.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Tory lead at lowest since April

More steady progress for Labour in the YouGov poll today. Con 42%(-1), Lab 34%(+1), LD 14%(nc). This is very nearly hung parliament territory - actually translates to a Tory majority of six.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Learning the lessons of 1931

I was brought up on family stories of Ramsay MacDonald's betrayal of the Labour Party in 1931, when he responded to the Depression by cutting public spending - including taking away the funding for my grandfather's university place - and thereby split the Labour Party as well as deepening the economic crisis.

So I was pleased by today's news that Alastair Darling intends to do the opposite - borrow to maintain public spending, and increase it in areas where jobs can be created as a consequence, in order to reflate the economy and provide alternative employment for people made jobless by the credit crunch.

We actually need the things that the press coverage of his interview says will get funded so it's a win-win situation - more social housing being built, more green energy schemes (hopefully including nuclear), more investment in transport infrastructure like Crossrail, and even, according to the Observer, a bit of sensible defence Keynesianism, as that paper cites the new aircraft carriers and Trident replacement as programmes that will benefit.

 
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