Council by-elections

There were just two contested council by-elections yesterday:

Bowydd & Rhiw Ward, Gwynedd UA. PC hold. Uncontested in this and previous election.

St James Ward, RB Kingston-on-Thames. Con hold. Con 1123 (42.9%, +5.1), LD 865 (33%, +11), Lab 355 (13.5%, -4.5), UKIP 206 (7.9%, -3.8), Green 71 (2.7%, -3.7). Swing of 3% from Con to LD since 2014.

Ollerton Division, Nottinghamshire CC. Lab hold. Lab 1171 (56.4%, -1.9), Con 533 (25.7%, +4.1), UKIP 347 (16.7%, -3.3), LD 24 (1.2%, +1.2). Swing of 3% from Lab to Con since 2013.

Council by-elections

There were 12 council by-elections yesterday, with no discernible pattern to the results, and gains for the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, SNP and UKIP.

South Kintyre Ward, Argyll & Bute UA. SNP hold. First preference votes: SNP 942 (62.2%, +37.2), LD 214 (14.1%, -0.1), Con 203 (13.4%, -32.5), Lab 156 (10.3%, +10.3). Swing of 18.6% from LD to SNP since 2012.

Gatehouse Ward, Aylesbury Vale DC. LD hold. LD 295 (35.6%, -5.9), UKIP 267 (32.2%, +15.2), Con 113 (13.6%, -9.2), Lab 113 (13.6%, -5), Green 28 (3.4%, +3.4), Ind 12 (1.4%, +1.4). Swing of 10.6% from LD to UKIP since 2011.

Southcourt Ward, Aylesbury Vale DC. LD gain from Lab. LD 429 (42.3%, +6.3), UKIP 266 (26.2%, +12.1), Lab 175 (17.2%, -12.2), Con 112 (11%, -9.4), Green 33 (3.3%, +3.3). Swing of 2.9% from LD to UKIP since 2011.

Toton & Chilwell Meadows Ward, Broxtowe BC. Con hold. Con 952 (54.5%, +6.9), Lab 454 (26%, +3.9), UKIP 340 (19.5%, +6.4). Swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con since 2012 by-election.

Trelech Ward, Carmarthenshire UA. PC gain from Ind. PC 598 (68.3%, +33.6), Ind 181 (20.7%, -30.2), LD 96 (11%, -3.4). Swing of 31.9% from Ind to PC since 2012.

Kingsway Ward, Halton BC. Lab hold. Lab 537 (73.2%, -2.3), UKIP 164 (22.3%, -2.2), Con 22 (3%, +3), LD 11 (1.5%, +1.5). Swing of 0.1% from Lab to UKIP since this May.

Stamford North Division, Lincolnshire CC. UKIP gain from Ind. UKIP 400 (31.5%, +31.5), Lab 268 (21.1%, +0.1), Con 261 (20.6%, -11), Linc Ind 199 (15.7%, -31.7), LD 142 (11.2%, +11.2). Swing of 15.7% from Lab to UKIP since 2013.

Elgin City North Ward, Moray UA. SNP gain from Lab. First preference votes: SNP 728 (38%, -5.3), Ind 472 (24.6%, +15.2), Lab 287 (15%, -14.9), Con 273 (14.2%, -3.3), UKIP 81 (4.2%, +4.2), Green 77 (4%, +4). Swing of 10.3% from SNP to Ind since 2012.

Bransgore & Burley Ward, New Forest DC. Con hold. Con 834 (77.7%, +11.3), UKIP 171 (15.8%, +15.8), Lab 74 (6.9%, -7.4). Swing of 2.3% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Washington East Ward, Sunderland MBC. Lab hold. Lab 775 (38.3%, -3), Con 595 (29.4%, +4.1), UKIP 506 (25%, -1.1), Green 93 (4.6%, +4.6), LD 52 (2.6%, -2.2). Swing of 3.6% from Lab to Con since May this year.

Skelmersdale North Ward, West Lancashire DC. Lab hold. Lab 591 (87.9%, -1.8), Con 81 (12.1%, +1.8). Swing of 1.8% from Lab to Con since 2012.

Cox Green Ward, Windsor & Maidenhead UA. Con hold. Con 738 (50.7%, -2.2), LD 315 (21.6%, -10.9), UKIP 278 (19.1%, -19.1), Lab 124 (8.5%, -1.1). Swing of 4.4% from LD to Con since 2011.

Council by-elections

There were three council by-elections on Thursday and one (in Adur DC in Sussex) on Friday. All four saw the Labour vote share increase. The Rossendale and Thurrock wards are in parliamentary seats that are key targets for Labour.

St Mary’s Ward, Adur DC. Con hold. Con 340 (38.4%, +1.3), Lab 223 (25.3%, +2.6), UKIP 216 (24.4%, +3.3), Green 106 (12%, -0.7). Swing of 0.7% from Con to Lab since May this year.

Netherfield Ward, Mansfield DC. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 347 (57.7%, +12.1), UKIP 225 (37.4%, +37.4), TUSC 29 (4.8%, +4.8). Swing of 12.7% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Longholme Ward, Rossendale BC. Lab hold. Lab 505 (43.8%, +0.9), Con 390 (33.8%, +0.6), UKIP 258 (22.4%, -1.4). Swing of 0.2% from Con to Lab since May this year.

Aveley & Uplands Ward, Thurrock UA. UKIP hold. UKIP 747 (41%, -6.2), Con 520 (28.5%, -1.1), Lab 338 (18.6%, +2.4), Ind 217 (11.9%, +11.9). Swing of 2.6% from UKIP to Con since May this year.

Council by-election results

There were 12 council by-elections yesterday. With the exception of a loss to the Tories in Melton, it was a good night for Labour, holding a split ward seat in Hillingdon, holding a seat in Midlothian with a good swing from the SNP to Labour, in complete contradiction of the Scottish opinion polls, and holding three Oxford council estate seats with over 70% of the vote and the Greens losing vote share and getting derisory scores in a parliamentary seat they have announced is one of their dozen national targets. Congratulations to my wife Linda on her election as Blackbird Leys Ward councillor with 75.7% of the vote and a 7.7% swing from UKIP to Labour since May.

Troup Ward, Aberdeenshire UA. SNP gain from Con. First preference votes: SNP 1159 (46.1%, +6.4), Con 574 (22.8%, +1.9), Ind 391 (15.5%, +15.5), LD 141 (5.6%, +3.6), Lab 140 (5.6%, -0.9), Green 68 (2.7%, +2.7), Ind 43 (1.7%, +1.7). Swing of 2.2% from Con to SNP since 2012.

Bridlington Central & Old Town Ward, East Yorkshire UA. UKIP gain from SDP. UKIP 401 (30.8%, +30.8), Con 352 (27.1%, -2), Ind 217 (16.7%, +16.7), Ind 214 (16.5%, +16.5), Ind 116 (8.9%, +8.9). Swing of 16.4% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Howdenshire Ward, East Yorkshire UA. Con hold. Con 1020 (46.2%, +2.6), UKIP 891 (40.3%, +5.4), Lab 298 (13.5%, -2.1). Swing of 1.4% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Ellerby & Kirk Ella Ward, East Yorkshire UA. Con hold. Con 1522 (55.6%, +9.4), UKIP 699 (25.5%, +25.5), Lab 515 (18.8%, +2.7). Swing of 8.1% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Charville Ward, LB Hillingdon. Lab hold. Lab 950 (39.2%, +4.2), Con 929 (38.3%, +7), UKIP 468 (19.3%, -3), TUSC 40 (1.7%, -1.3), LD 37 (1.5%, +1.5). Swing of 1.4% from Lab to Con since May this year. This was a split ward electing a mix of Lab and Con councillors in May.

St Neots Priory Park Ward, Huntingdonshire DC. Con hold. Con 448 (45.5%, -2.9), UKIP 337 (25.5%, +7.4), Lab 199 (20.2%, +5.4). Swing of 5.2% from Con to UKIP since May this year.

Asfordby Ward, Melton DC. Con gain from Lab. Con 265 (54.3%, +16.2), Lab 129 26.4%, -7.7), UKIP 94 (19.3%, +19.3). Swing of 12% from Lab to Con since 2011. This was a split ward electing both Lab and Con councillors in 2011.

Midlothian East Ward, Mildlothian UA. Lab hold. First preference votes: Lab 1294 (32.9%, -2.7), SNP 1260 (32.1%, -10.8), Ind 780 (19.8%, +19.8), Con 331 (8.4%, -0.7), Green 197 (5%, +5), LD 68 (1.7%, +1.7). Swing of 4.1% from SNP to Lab since 2012.

Kirkwall West & Orphir Ward, Orkney UA. Ind hold. All candidates Independent in this election and in 2012.

Blackbird Leys Ward, Oxford CC. Lab hold. Lab 509 (75.7%, +8.4), UKIP 91 (13.5%, -7), Con 27 (4%, -1.6), Green 21 (3.1%, -1.4), TUSC 13 (1.9%, +1.9), LD 11 (1.6%, -0.4). Swing of 7.7% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Northfield Brook Ward, Oxford CC. Lab hold. Lab 401 (70.6%, -1), Con 65 (11.4%, n/c), Green 50 (8.8%, -2.5), TUSC 34 (6%, +6), LD 18 (3.2%, -2.5). Swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con since May this year.

The Leys Division, Oxfordshire CC. Lab hold. Lab 879 (71%, -10.5), UKIP 168 (13.6%, +13.6), Con 77 (6.2%, -1.4), Green 57 (4.6%, -2.8), LD 30 (2.4%, -1), TUSC 27 (2.2%, +2.2). Swing of 12.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2013.

Council by-elections

As well as the Rochester & Strood parliamentary by-election, there were three council by-elections on Thursday, one of them for a ward within Rochester & Strood:

Peninsula Ward, Medway UA. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 2850 (48.3%, +48.3), Con 1965 (33.3%, -20.9), Lab 716 (12.1%, -8.6), Green 314 (5.3%, -2.1), LD 60 (1%, -5.3). Swing of 34.6% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Bramhall South & Woodford Ward, Stockport MBC. Con hold. Con 2080 (53.2%, +8.2), LD 1502 (38.4%, +5.3), Green 197 (5%, +5), Lab 132 (3.4%, -5.5). Swing of 1.5% from LD to Con since May this year.

Uplands Ward, Swansea UA. Ind gain from Lab. Ind 671 (32.5%, +32.5), Lab 553 (26.8%, -12.4), LD 215 (10.4%, -22.4), Green 179 (8.7%, -9.8), Ind 158 (7.7%, +7.7), Con 154 (7.5%, -2.1), PC 104 (5%, +5), TUSC 31 (1.5%, +1.5).  Swing of 22.5% from Lab to Ind since 2012. The Independent candidate who won was previously the Lib Dem councillor for the ward.

Council by-elections

There were seven council by-elections yesterday. I initially assumed the Cambridge result shows how strong the Lib Dem organisation is in some of their defensive parliamentary marginals, even against Labour, but have since been informed this ward is actually in the South Cambs parliamentary seat and has only ever been won once by Labour, in 2012.

The two Dartford results look better than I would have expected for Labour in the Thames Estuary area where UKIP are on the march. In vote share terms the Labour vote looks more solid across this set of results than the recent national polls would suggest.

Queen Edith’s Ward, Cambridge CC. LD gain from Lab. LD 933 (36.5%, -6.1), Lab 790 (30.9%, +1.1), Con 614 (24%, +7.7), Green 222 (8.7%, -2.7). Swing of 3.6% from LD to Lab since May this year.

Brent Ward, Dartford BC. Con hold. Con 597 (45.4%, -7.4), Lab 402 (30.6%, -5.1), UKIP 316 (24%, +24). Swing of 0.7% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Littlebrook Ward, Dartford BC. Lab hold. Lab 358 (47.7%, -7.1), UKIP 220 (29.3%, +29.3), Con 172 (22.9%, -1.1). Swing of 18.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Alport & Derwent Division, Derbyshire CC. Con 1118 (44.9%, +2.6), UKIP 715 (28.7%, +3.3), Lab 656 (26.4%, +2.1). Swing of 0.4% from Con to UKIP since 2013.

Bolney Ward, Mid Sussex DC. Con hold. Con 261 (42.9%, -24.3), UKIP 187 (30.7%, +17.4), LD 161 (26.4%, +6.9). Swing of 20.9% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Douglas Ward, Wigan MBC. Lab hold. Lab 874 (59.4%, -0.7), UKIP 452 (30.7%, -0.9), Con 80 (5.4%, -3), Green 37 (2.5%, +2.5), CAP 29 (2%, +2). Swing of 0.1% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Bulmershe & Whitegates Ward, Wokingham UA. Con gain from LD. Con 726 (35.4%, +8.4), Lab 498 (24.3%, -10), LD 448 (21.8%, +4.1), UKIP 275 (13.4%, -1.6), Green 105 (5.1%, -1). Swing of 9.2% from Lab to Con since May this year.

Council by-elections

There were only two council by-elections yesterday:

Mevagissey Division, Cornwall UA. Con gain from Lab. Con 348 (32.2%, +8.2),
UKIP 281 (26%, -1.6), Lab 204 (18.9%, -10.8), LD 197 (18.2%, +4.3), Green 50 (4.6%, -0.1). Swing of 4.9% from UKIP to Con since 2013.

Bilton Ward, Rugby BC. Con hold.  Con 668 (42%, -12.2), UKIP 325 (20.4%, +20.4), LD 280 (17.6%, +8.1), Lab 212 (13.3%, -8.1), Ind 60 (3.8%, +3.8), Green 37 (2.3%. -7.8), TUSC 10 (0.6%, -4.3). Swing of 16.3% from Con to UKIP since May this year.

Council by-elections

As well as the by-election for South Yorkshire Police Commissioner there were five council by-elections on Thursday:

Police & Crime Commissioner, South Yorkshire. Lab hold. First preference votes: Lab 74060 (50%, -1.4), UKIP 46883 (31.7%, +20.2), Con 18536 (12.5%, -2), Eng Dem 8583 (5.8%, -9.8). Swing of 10.8% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Canvey Island East Ward, Castle Point BC. Ind gain from Canvey Island Ind Party. Ind 389 (39.1%, +39.1), CIIP 323 (32.4%, -34.4), Con 208 (20.9%, -0.2), Lab 76 (7.6%, -4.5). Swing of 36.8% from CIIP to Ind since May this year.

Sanfields East Ward, Neath Port Talbot UA. Lab hold, Lab 641 (61.1%, +1.4), UKIP 361 (34.4%, +21.6), Con 47 (4.5%, +1.2). Swing of 10.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2013 by-election.

North Coast & Cumbraes Ward, North Ayrshire UA. SNP hold. First preference votes: SNP 2021 (38.7%, -6.2), Ind 1190 (22.8%, +22.8), Con 1125 (21.6%, +3.2), Lab 691 (13.2%, -5.1), UKIP 192 (3.7%, +3.7). Swing of 14.5% from SNP to Ind since 2012.

Ironbridge Gorge Ward, Telford & Wrekin UA. Lab hold. Lab 325 (44.1%, -8.9), Con 276 (37.4%, -9.6), UKIP 136 (18.5%, +18.5). Swing of 0.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Newport West Ward, Telford & Wrekin UA. Ind gain from Con. Ind 264 (39.8%, +39.8), Con 179 (27%, -37), UKIP 157 (23.7%, +23.7), Lab 63 (9.5%, -26.5). Swing of 38.4% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Council by-elections

There were eight council by-elections yesterday, with Labour, the Tories and the SNP each gaining a seat from Independents.

Oban North & Lorn Ward, Argyll & Bute UA. SNP gain from Ind. First preference votes: SNP 1090 (40.9%, +16.3), Ind 629 (23.6%, -11.6), Lab 530 (19.9%, -1.9), Con 415 (15.6%, -2.8). Swing of 14% from Ind to SNP since by-election in July.

Rogate Ward, Chichester DC. Con hold. Con 342 (71.3%, -19.8), UKIP 138 (28.7%, +28.7). Swing of 24.3% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Burnopfield & Dipton Division, Durham UA. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 656 (44.9%, +6.8), Ind 655 (44.8%, +3.5), Con 83 (5.7%, +5.7), Green 68 (4.7%, +4.7). Swing of 1.7% from Ind to Lab since 2013.

Evenwood Division, Durham UA. Lab hold. Lab 546 (38.2%, -7.8)
Con 396 (27.7%, -0.3), UKIP 309 (21.6%, -4.4), Ind 108 (7.5%, +7.5), Green 72 (5%, +5). Swing of 3.8% from Lab to Con since 2013.

Newnham & Westbury Ward, Forest of Dean DC. Ind hold. Ind 321 (38.5%, -1.6), Con 216 (25.9%, -4.9), UKIP 102 (12.2%, +12.2), Lab 100 (12%, -1), Green 70 (8.4%, -7.7), Lib Dem 25 (3%, +3). Swing of 1.7% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Mitcheldean Division, Gloucestershire CC. Con gain from Ind. Con 959 (38.4%, +14), UKIP 550 (22%, +2.7), Ind 455 (18.2%, -18.2), Lab 278 (11.1%, +0.8), LD 150 (6%, +0.6), Green 106 (4.2%, +0.4). Swing of 5.7% from UKIP to Con since 2013.

Haywards Heath Lucastes Ward, Mid Sussex DC. Con hold. Con 524 (56.4%, +4.9), UKIP 203 (21.9%, +15), LD 112 (12.1%, -12.3), Lab 90 (9.7%, +9.7). Swing of 5.1% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Folkestone Harvey West Ward, Shepway DC. Con hold. Con 385 (36.4%, -18.8), UKIP 293 (27.7%, +27.7), LD 262 (24.8%, +3.4), Green 61 (5.8%, +5.8), Lab 57 (5.4%, -18). Swing of 23.2% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Council by-elections

There were ten council by-elections yesterday. Note the successful defence against UKIP by Labour in the key Essex target parliamentary seat of Thurrock, the UKIP gain from the Tories in Kent (Sittingbourne & Sheppey parliamentary constituency), and the two Lib Dem gains.

Harper Green Ward, Bolton MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1176 (50.7%, -6), UKIP 777 (33.4%, +9.3), Con 282 (12.2%, +0.1), Green 38 (1.6%, -2.2), LD 28 (1.2%, -1.7), Ind 19 (0.8%, +0.8). Swing of 7.7% from Lab to UKIP since May this year.

Towyn Ward, Conwy UA. Con hold. Con 143 (25%), Ind 116 (20.2%), Ind 104 (18.2%), Lab 98 (17.1%), Ind  69 (12%), Ind 43 (7.5%). No swing calculable as uncontested in 2012.

Medworth Ward, Fenland DC. Con hold. Con 257 (44.6%, -14.5), UKIP 201 (34.9%, +34.9), Lab 79 (13.7%, -17.8), LD 24 (4.2%, -5.2), Ind 15 (2.6%, +2.6). Swing of 26.4% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Tudor Ward, LB Kingston-on-Thames. Con hold. Con 1062 (41%, +0.1), LD 725 (28%, +10.3), Lab 314 (12.1%, -2.1), UKIP 269 (10.4%, -1.1), Green 219 (8.5%, -7.4). Swing of 5.1% from Con to LD since May this year.

Helmshore Ward, Rossendale BC. Con hold. Con 771 (48.8%, -13.4), Lab 444 (28.1%, -9.7), UKIP 364 (23.1%, +23.1%). Swing of 1.9% from Con to Lab since May this year.

Oakham South West Ward, Rutland UA. Con hold. Con 240 (52.2%, +13.8), Ind 177 (38.5%, +0.8), LD 43 (9.3%, -14.7). Swing of 6.5% from Ind to Con since 2011.

Whissendine Ward, Rutland UA. LD gain from Ind. LD 192 (51.8%, +51.8), Con 179 (48.2%, +5.8). Swing not meaningful since 2011.

Sheppey Central Ward, Swale DC. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 831 (58.4%, +42.7), Con 324 (22.8%, -21.2), Lab 240 (16.9%, -15.1), Loony 27 (1.9%, -6.4). Swing of 32% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

West Thurrock & South Stifford Ward, Thurrock UA. Lab hold. Lab 903 (50.3%, +3), UKIP 621 (34.6%, +0.5), Con 270 (15.1%, -0.2). Swing of 1.3% from UKIP to Lab since May this year.

Westfield Ward, York UA. LD gain from Lab. LD 1804 (60.2%, +25.6), Lab 588 (19.6%, -23.8), UKIP 398 (13.3%, +13.3), Con 113 (3.8%, -10), Green 87 (2.9%, -5.5), Eng Dem 5 (0.2%, +0.2). Swing of 24.7% from Lab to LD since 2011.

Council by-elections

As well as the two parliamentary by-elections there were five council by-elections yesterday, including a Labour gain in the key marginal seat of Crawley:

Waterloo Ward, Blackpool UA. Con hold. Con 406 (34.5%, -5.3), UKIP 372 (31.6%, +31.6) Lab 347 (29.5%, -17.5), LD 34 (2.9%, -10.3), BNP 17 (1.4%, +1.4). Swing of 18.5% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Bicknacre and East and West Hanningfield, Chelmsford BC. Con hold. Con 649 (56.1%, -15.6), UKIP 359 (31%, +31), Lab 80 (6.9%, -9.2), Green 35 (3%, +3), LD 34 (2.9%, -9.3). Swing of 23.3% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Southgate Ward, Crawley BC. Lab gain from Con who had defected to UKIP. Lab 733 (44.1%, +9), Con 642 (38.6%, +6.1), UKIP 277 (16.7%, -6.7),  Justice 10 (0.6%, +0.6). Swing of 1.5% from Con to Lab since May this year.

Brightlingsea Division, Essex CC. Con gain from UKIP. Con 1809 (33.7%, +9.1), UKIP 1642 (30.6%, +0.2), LD 1199 (22.3%, -4.6), Lab 524 (9.8%, -2.7), Green 200 (3.7%, +0.2). Swing of 4.5% from UKIP to Con since 2013.

West Heath Ward, Rushmoor BC. UKIP hold. UKIP 662 (50.9%, +4.3), Con 312 (24%, -5.4), Lab 196 (15.1%, -0.3), LD 132 (10%, +1.4). Swing of 4.9% from Con to UKIP since May this year.

Council by-elections

There were six council by-elections yesterday:

Llandaff North Ward, Cardiff CC. Lab hold. Lab 898 (50.1%, +2.7), Ind 419 (23.4%, +0.2), UKIP 204 (11.4%, +11.4), Con 136 (7.6%, +1.7), LD 134 (7.5%, -6.8). Swing of 1.3% from Ind to Lab since 2012.

Windermere Division, Cumbria CC. LD hold. LD 1061 (51.6%, -10.5), Con 810 (39.4%, +20.7), Ind 123 (6%, +6), Green 61 (3%, +3). Swing of 15.6% from LD to Con since 2013.

Windermere Town Ward, South Lakeland DC. LD hold. LD 416 (64%, -8.9), Con 184 (28.3%, +13.5), Green 50 (7.7%, +7.7). Swing of 11.2% from LD to Con since 2012.

Woodside Ward, LB Haringey. Lab hold. Lab 1331 (56.3%, -0.8), LD 482 (20.4%, +8.6), Green 191 (8.1%, -3.4), UKIP 161 (6.8%, -0.5), Con 140 (5.9%, -1.8), TUSC 35 (1.5%, -1.3), Ind 23 (1%, -0.7). Swing of 3.9% from Lab to LD since May this year.

Grange Park Ward, South Northamptonshire DC. Double by-election for two seats in same ward. 2 Con holds. Con 433, 313 (63.3%, -12.9), Lab 151 (22.1%, +22.1), UKIP 100, 84 (14.6%, +14.6). Swing of 17.5% from Con to Lab since 2012.

Westoe Ward, South Tyneside MBC. UKIP gain from Ind. UKIP 676 (40.9%, +2.9), Lab 625 (37.9%, -6.9), Con 219 (13.3%, -3.9), Green 90 (5.5%, +5.5), LD 41 (2.5%, +2.5). Swing of 4.9% from Lab to UKIP since May this year.

Council by-elections for last two weeks

18 September

Abergele Pensarm Ward, Conwy UA. Lab hold. Lab 160 (25.9%, -29.2), Ind 134 (21.7%, +21.7), UKIP 129 (20.9%, +20.9), Ind 74 (12%, -13.2), Ind 56 (9.1%, +9.1), Con 54 (8.8%, -10.9), Ind 10 (1.6%). Swing of 25.5% from Lab to Ind since 2012.

Crook Division, Durham UA. Lab gain from Ind. Lab 753 (46.8%, +6.5), UKIP 339 (21.1%, +21.1), LD 233 (14.5%, +6.6), Ind 193 (12%, -15), Con 90 (5.6%, +2.7). Swing of 7.3% from Lab to UKIP since 2013 by-election.

Quarry & Risinghurst Ward, Oxford CC. Lab hold. Lab 782 (42.3%, -1.3), LD 615 (33.3%, +7.8), Con 222 (12%, -7.2), Green 186 (10.1%, -1.7), Eng Dem 43 (2.3%, +2.3). Swing of 4.6% from Lab to LD since May this year.

25 September

Epping Hemnall Ward, Epping Forest DC. LD gain from Con. LD 607 (43.3%, +0.8), Con 386 (27.6%, +6.5), UKIP 339 (24.2%, -1.4), Green 69 (4.9%, +0.6). Swing of 2.9% from LD to Con since May this year.

Lovelace Ward, Guildford BC. LD gain from Con. LD 555 (63.4%, +49.1), Con 225 (25.7%, -45.3), UKIP 63 (7.2%, +7.2), Lab 32 (3.7%, -11). Swing of 47.2% from Con to LD since 2011.

Frome North Division, Somerset CC. Con gain from LD. Con 1111 (46.5%, +10.8), LD 836 (35%, -2.3), Lab 163 (6.8%, -3.9), Ind 139 (5.8%, +5.8), Green 139 (5.8%, +5.8). Swing of 6.6% from LD to Con since 2013.

Council by-elections

There were six council by-elections last night. Several of these were in Tory marginal parliamentary seats – Carlisle (Castle Ward which saw a small swing to the Tories compared to May), Sherwood (Ollerton Ward which saw a 6.1% swing to Labour since 2011) and Oxford West & Abingdon (Abingdon Dunmore Ward which saw a swing of 10.4% to the Lib Dems since 2011, this is one of a handful of seats they hope to gain against the tide in the General Election).

Castle Ward, Carlisle BC. Lab hold. Lab 364 (38.4%, +1.1), Con 212 (22.4%, +3.4), UKIP  208 (22%, -0.9),  LD 121 (12.8%, +1.9), Green 42 (4.4%, -3.1). Swing of 1.2% from Lab to Con since May this year.

Castle Division, Carlisle CC. Lab hold. Lab 389 (37.7%, -2.8), Con 245 (23.7%, +13.1), UKIP 235 (22.8%, +2.8), LD 112 (10.9%, -12.3), Green 51 (4.9%, +0.9). Swing of 8% from Lab to Con since 2013.

Collingham & Meering Ward, Newark & Sherwood DC. Con hold. Con 568 (41.2%, -33.8), Ind 476 (35.5%, +35.5), UKIP 218 (15.8%, +15.8), Lab 118 (8.6%, -16.4). Swing of 34.7% from Con to Ind since 2013 by-election.

Ollerton Ward, Newark & Sherwood DC. Lab 837 (58.1%, +7.5), Con 323 (22.4%, -4.6), UKIP 280 (19.4%, +19.4). Swing of 6.1% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Beckton Ward, LB Newham. Lab hold. Lab 1006 (51%, -7.8), Con 584 (29.6%, -4.1), UKIP 215 (10.9%, +10.9), Green 70 (3.5%, +3.5), LD 43 (2.2%, +2.2), Christian PA 33 (1.7%, -6.2), TUSC 21 (1.1%, +1.1). Swing of 1.9% from Lab to Con since May this year.

Abingdon Dunmore Ward, Vale of White Horse DC. LD hold. LD 745 (52.4%, +14.7), Con 501 (35.2%, -6.1), UKIP 90 (6.3%, +6.3), Lab 87 (6.1%, -4.7). Swing of 10.4% from Con to LD since 2011.

Council by-elections

Getting back on track with reporting council by-elections after a short break. The three yesterday saw two good Labour performances in the south (Oxford and Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath constituency) and a UKIP gain in Folkestone, one of their prime Kent parliamentary targets:

Carfax Ward, Oxford CC. Lab hold. Lab 168 (44.2%, +15.6), LD 101 (26.6%, +9), Green 63 (16.6%, -14.2), Con 24 (6.3%, -13.8), UKIP 24 (6.3%, +6.3). Swing of 3.3% from LD to Lab since May this year.

Folkestone Harvey Central Ward, Shepway DC. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 287 (27.9%, +27.9), Con 224 (21.7%, -17.3), LD 198 (19.2%, +2.3), Lab 196 (19%, -9.1), Green 96 (9.3%, +9.3), TUSC 29% (2.8%, +2.8). Swing of 22.6% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Old Dean Ward, Surrey Heath DC. Lab hold. Lab 290 (44.6%, -5.6), Con 196 (29.8%, -0.5), UKIP 171 (26%, +14.3). Swing of 2.6% from Lab to Con since 2011.

Council by-elections and deferred polls

Here are the results of the council by-elections and deferred polls since 22 May:

3 July

Wivenhoe Quay Ward, Colchester BC. Lab hold. Lab 857 (46.7%, -5.4), Con 629 (34.3%, +2.4), UKIP 129 (7%, +7), LD 127 (6.9%, n/c), Green 90 (4.9%, -4.2), Pat Soc 2 (0.1%, +0.1). Swing of 3.9% from Lab to Con since 2012.

St James Ward, Northampton BC. Lab hold. Lab 307 (31.7%, -2.9), LD 262 (27.1%, +9.9), UKIP 201 (20.8%, +20.8), Con 198 (20.5%, -11.4). Swing of 6.4% from Lab to LD since 2011.

Braunston & Crick Division, Northamptonshire CC. Con hold. Con 1019 (40.5%, +6.5), Lab 989 (39.3%, +9.5), UKIP 506 (20.1%, -11.3). Swing of 1.5% from Con to Lab since 2013.

Brixworth Division, Northamptonshire CC. Con hold.  Con 1297 (55.4%, +4.4),
UKIP 500 (21.3%, -3.7), Lab 248 (10.6%, -2.6), Green 228 (9.7%, +3), LD 69 (2.9%, -1.1). Swing of 4.1% from UKIP to Con since 2013.

Old Laund Booth Ward, Pendle BC. LD hold. LD 427 (58.3%, +9.8), Con 266 (36.3%, -10.9), UKIP 27 (3.7%, +3.7), Blue Party 13 (1.8%, +1.8). Swing of 10.4% from Con to LD since 2011.

Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley & Tendring Ward, Tendring DC. Con hold. Con 376 (46%, +4.3), LD 159 (19.4%, -16.6), UKIP 154 (18.8%, +18.8), Labour 129 (15.8%, +15.8). Swing of 10.5% from LD to Con since 2011.

Charlton Park Ward, Cheltenham BC. LD gain from Con. LD 861 (45.9%, -1)
Con 767 (40.9%, -12.1), UKIP 154 (8.2%, +8.2), Lab 46 (2.5%, +2.5), Green 46 (2.5%, +2.5).

Blackwall & Cubitt Town Ward, LB Tower Hamlets. New ward boundaries. 2 Lab, 1 Con. Lab 956, 875, 872 (31.8%), Con 877, 815, 762 (28.9%), Tower Hamlets First 744, 726, 713 (25.7%), UKIP 240, 190, 188 (7.3%), Green 110, 98, 74 (3.3%), LD 71, 68, 58 (2.3%), TUSC 11, 11 (0.4%), Ind 11 (0.4%). The previous ward with this name (on different boundaries) elected 3 Tory councillors in 2010.

2 July

Skipton West Ward, Craven DC. Lab gain from LD. Lab 185 (24%, +3),  LD 143 (18.5%, -18),  Con 131 (17%, -3.6), UKIP 126 (16.3%, +16.3), Ind 120 (15.5%, +15.5), Green 67 (8.7%, +8.7). This is the first Labour seat won on this council since 1996. Swing of 10.5% from LD to Lab since 2012.

Skipton West Division, North Yorkshire CC. Ind gain from LD. Ind 391 (23.4%, -0.2),  Con 355 (21.3%, +0.9),  LD 309 (18.5%, -10.1), UKIP 238 (14.3%, +14.3), Green 194 (11.6%, -4),  Lab 181 (10.9%, -0.9). Swing of 0.6% from Ind to Con since 2013.

26 June

Swanwick Ward, Amber Valley DC. Con hold. Con 474 (36.4%, -7), Lab 298 (22.9%, -2.2), Ind 252 (19.4%, -9.1), UKIP 245 (18.8%, +18.8), LD 32 (2.5%, +2.5). Swing of 2.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

 Colindale Ward, LB Hendon. Lab holds X3. Lab 2190, 2088, 2015, (66.3%, +10.8) Con 501, 466, 420,  (15.2%, -4.9), UKIP 347, 309, 268, (10.5%, +10.5), LD 133, 90, 87, (4%, -14.6), Green 130, 114, 108 (3.9%, -1.8). Swing of 7.9% from Con to Lab since 2010.

19 June

Soham South Ward, East Cambridgeshire DC. Con gain from Ind. Con 363 (34.4%, -1.5), UKIP 201 (19.1%, +19.1), LD 191 (18.1%, -1), Ind 148 (14%, -14.8), Ind 80 (7.6%, +7.6), Lab 71 (6.7%, -9.4). Swing of 10.3% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Southam Ward, Stratford-on-Avon DC. Con hold. Con 493 (42.9%,  +2), Lab 398 (34.6%, +11.7), UKIP 259 (22.5%, -7). Swing of 4.9% from Con to Lab since May this year.

12 June

Sleaford Quarrington & Mareham Ward, North Kesteven DC.  Lincs Ind gain from Ind. Lincs Ind 527 (44.6%, +20.8), Con 477 (40.4%, +0.9), Ind 178 (15.1%, +15.1).  Swing of 10% from Con to Lincs Ind since 2011.

Sleaford Westholme Ward, North Kesteven DC. Lincs Ind gain from Ind. Lincs Ind 342 (68.5%, +68.5), Con 119 (23.8%, +3.3), Lab 38 (7.6%, +7.6). Swing not meaningful.

Collington Ward, Rother DC. Ind hold. Ind 570 (+41.9, -7.8), Con 378  (27.8%, -11.7), UKIP 311 (22.9%, +22.9), Lab 102 (7.5%, -3.3). Swing of 2% from Con to Ind since 2011.

5 June

Clydesdale South Ward, South Lanarkshire UA. Lab gain from SNP. First preference votes: Lab 1492 (40.8%, -2.8), SNP 1170 (32%, -9.7), Con 659 (18%, +7.5), UKIP 233 (6.4%, -2.1), Green 104 (2.8%, +2.8). Swing of 3.5% from SNP to Lab since 2012.

Labourlist columns

My recent Labourlist columns:

http://labourlist.org/2014/07/devolution-should-mean-giving-more-power-to-councils/

http://labourlist.org/2014/06/the-labour-leader-miliband-most-resembles-clem-attlee/

http://labourlist.org/2014/06/labour-had-had-a-wasted-week-we-cant-afford-any-more-of-them/

http://labourlist.org/2014/06/giving-up-on-the-white-working-class-is-a-20-strategy/

http://labourlist.org/2014/06/10-things-i-wont-miss-about-being-a-councillor/

http://labourlist.org/2014/05/election-scorecard-how-did-we-do/

http://labourlist.org/2014/05/10-ways-that-you-can-help-labour-win-on-thursday/

http://labourlist.org/2014/05/10-things-to-bear-in-mind-as-we-look-at-the-tory-poll-leads/

http://labourlist.org/2014/05/how-labour-can-stop-nigel-farage/

http://labourlist.org/2014/04/could-we-be-witnessing-the-death-of-the-conservative-party/

Council by-elections

There were 4 council by-elections on Thursday. The Cambridgeshire one seems to show huge Lab to LD tactical voting to beat the Tories:

Blackwood Ward, Caerphilly UA. Lab hold. Lab 620 (41%, -3.9), Ind 477 (31.5%, -2), PC 349 (23.1%, +6.9), Con 68 (4.5%, -2.8). Swing of 1% from Lab to Ind since 2012.

Sutton Ward, East Cambridgeshire DC. LD gain from Con. LD 523 (50.9%, +27), Con 280 (27.2%, -19.2), UKIP 162 (15.8%, +15.8), Lab 63 (6.1%, -23.6). Swing of 23.1% from Con to LD since 2011.

Horncastle Ward, East Lindsey DC. Con hold. Con 432 (38.4%, +4.3), Ind 353 (31.4%, +9.2), UKIP 339 (30.2%, +30.2). Swing of 2.5% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Osbournby Ward, North Kesteven DC. Con gain from Ind. Con 312 (49.7%, +19.3), Ind 269 (42.8%, -26.8), Lab 38 (6.1%, +6.1), LD 9 (1.4%, +1.4). Swing of 23.1% from Ind to Con since 2011.

Labourlist columns

My two most recent columns have been about:

The idea of Unite backing a new "Workers' Party": http://labourlist.org/2014/04/talk-of-a-breakaway-workers-party-is-dangerous-and-wrong/

David Axelrod's appointment to advise Labour: http://labourlist.org/2014/04/axelrod-understands-the-importance-of-grassroots-campaigning/

Council by-elections

There were four by-elections on Thursday (10 April). The Tories successfully defended marginals against Labour and the Lib Dems, whilst UKIP eroded Labour’s vote dramatically in Cumbria and North Wales:

Belle Vue Division, Cumbria CC. Lab hold. Lab 565 (45.8% -20.1), Con 435 (35.3%, +1.2), UKIP 234 (19% +19). Swing of 10.7% from Lab to Con since 2013.

Flint Trelawney Ward, Flintshire UA. Lab hold. Lab 350 (38.6%,  -17.9), UKIP 261 (28.8%, +28.8), Ind 242 (26.7%, -2.9), Con 54 (6%, +6). Swing of 23.4% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Coal Aston Ward, North East Derbyshire DC. Con hold. Con 518 (46.3%, -3.3), Lab 409 (36.5%, -0.5), UKIP 193 (17.2%, +17.2). Swing of 1.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Wantage Charlton Ward, Vale of the White Horse DC. Con hold. Con 591 (41.9%, -5.3), LD 542 (38.4%, +2.5), Lab 155 (11%, -5.9), Green 124 (8.8%, +8.8). Swing of  3.9% from Con to LD since 2011.

There was also one by-election on 3 April:

Blacko & Higherford Ward, Pendle DC. Con hold. Con 370 (66.7%, -13.1), UKIP 86 (15.5%, +15.5), Lab 65 (11.7%, -8.5), LD 34 (6.1%, +6.1). Swing of 14.3% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Labourlist column(s)

Unusually I had three blog posts published this week on Labourlist:

On Labour's prospects in the May elections: http://labourlist.org/2014/04/labours-prospects-this-may/

On the Beyond the Barriers report slamming Atos: http://labourlist.org/2014/04/beyond-the-barriers-new-report-exposes-appalling-failures-of-atos/

On Ed Miliband's trip to Israel: http://labourlist.org/2014/04/how-important-is-milibands-trip-to-israel/

Council by-elections

There were six council by-elections yesterday. Labour had a good night, winning seats in split wards in marginal Dartford (Kent) and Gedling (Nottinghamshire). There were some very strong UKIP performances, with results near to 30% in  areas as diverse as the Dartford ward and Sunderland.

Stone Ward, Dartford BC.  Lab hold. Lab 426 (37.7%, -3.8), Con 397 (35.1%, -11.1), UKIP 307 (27.2%, +27.2). Swing of 3.7% from Con to Lab since 2011. Impressive result for Labour given this was a split ward with both Tory and Labour councillors in 2011.

Kilmarnock North Ward, East Ayrshire UA. SNP hold. First preference votes: SNP 1334 (45.1%, -7.6), Lab 1130 (38.2%, +2.6), Con 430 (14.6%, +2.9), Green 61 (2.1%, +2.1). Swing of 5.1% from SNP to Lab since 2012.

St John’s Ward, Fylde DC. Ratepayers hold. Ratepayers 804 (65.7%, +28.6), Con 205 (16.7%, -23.9), UKIP 100 (8.2%, +8.2), LD 62 (5.1%, -17.3), Green 53 (4.3%, +4.3). Swing of 26.3% from Con to Ratepayers since 2011. 

Gedling Ward, Gedling BC. Lab gain from LD. Lab 482 (32.6%, -1.8), LD 428 (28.9%, -2.7), UKIP 337 (22.8%, +22.8), Con 233 (15.7%, -12.6). Swing of 0.5% from LD to Lab since 2011.

Chalgrove & Watlington Division, Oxfordshire CC. Con hold. Con 871 (41.8, -16), LD 629 (30.2%, +12.4), UKIP 311(14.9%, +3), Lab 159 (7.6%, -5), Green 116 (5.6%, +5.6). Swing of 14.2% from Con to LD since 2013.

St Anne’s Ward, Sunderland MBC. Lab hold. Lab 945 (48.1%, -24), UKIP 555 (28.2%, +28.2), Con 345 (17.6%, +3.6), Green 120 (6.1%, -5). Swing of 26.1% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Labourlist column

My Labourlist column responds to that letter in the Guardian: http://labourlist.org/2014/03/why-yesterdays-letter-to-the-guardian-was-a-mistake/

Council by-elections

There were five council by-elections yesterday:

Wroxham Ward, Broadland DC. LD hold. LD 482 (48.3%, +2.5), Con 341 (34.2%, -0.3), UKIP 112 (11.2%, +11.2), Lab 63 (6.3%, -4.3). Swing of 1.4% from Con to LD since 2011.

Gamston Ward, Rushcliffe DC. Con hold. Con 444 (44.2, -10), Lab 218 (21.7%, -3.2), UKIP 173 (17.2%, +17.2), LD 170 (16.9%, +6.9). Swing of 3.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Cellarhead Ward, Staffordshire Moorlands DC. Con gain from Ind. Con 175 (32.2%, -12.6), Lab 132 (24.3%, +24.3), Ind 119 (21.9%, -33.4), UKIP 105 (19.3%, +19.3), LD 13 (2.4%, +2.4). Swing of 18.5% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Bideford East Ward, Torridge DC. Ind hold. Ind 295 (39.5%, +18.2), Con 150 (20.1%, -9.1), Lab 140 (18.7%, +4.9), Ind 106 (14.2%, +14.2), LD 39 (5.2%, -13), Ind 17 (2.3%, +2.3). Swing of 13.7% from Con to Ind since 2011.

There was also a by-election in Portsoken Ward in the City of London, one of the wards with more residents (most City wards are dominated by non-resident business voters under their unique electoral system). This was won by Labour, the first time Labour has been represented on what is traditionally a non-party political council.

Labourlist Column

My Labourlist column this week was about Tony Benn: http://labourlist.org/2014/03/praise-benn-but-never-forget-the-damage-he-did-to-labour/

Council by-elections

There were two by-elections last Wednesday and a further eight on Thursday. The LDs gained two seats from the Tories.

12 March

Petersfield Bell Hill Ward, East Hampshire DC. Con hold. Con 190 (42.3%, -14.3), UKIP 110 (24.5%, +24.5), Lab 75 (16.7%, -2.6), LD 74 (16.5%, -7). Swing of 19.9% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Petersfield Butser Division, Hampshire CC. Con hold. Con 1156 (37.3%, -1.5), UKIP 720 (23.2%, +0.7), LD 685 (22.1%, +1.1), Lab 322 (10.7%, +1.1), Green 220 (7.1%, -1.5). Swing of 1.1% from Con to UKIP since 2013.

13 March

Heanor West Ward, Amber Valley DC. Lab hold. Lab 595 (52.9%, -3.3), UKIP 259 (23%, +23), Con 229 (20.4%, -5.2), LD 41 (3.6%, +3.6). Swing of 13.2% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Barham Downs Ward, Canterbury CC. LD gain from Con. LD 337 (37.3%, -3.4), Con 285 (31.5%, -11.4), UKIP 164 (18.1%, +18.1), Lab 78 (8.6%, +8.6), Green 40 (4.4%, -12). Swing of 4% from Con to LD since 2011.

Crewe West Ward, Cheshire East UA. Lab hold. Lab 720 (49.9%, -6.6), UKIP 387 (26.8%, +26.8), Ind 159 (11%, +11), Con 122 (8.5%, -16.8), LD 55 (3.8%, -14.3). Swing of 16.7% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Longview Ward, Knowsley MBC. Lab hold. Lab 670 (64.8%, -29), Ind 327 (31.6%, +31.6), Con 37 (3.6%, +3.6). Swing of 30.3% from Lab to Ind since 2012.

Farley Ward, Luton UA. Lab hold. Lab 1232 (72.5%, +17.6), UKIP 226 (13.3%, +5.6), Con 154 (9.1%, -9), LD 46 (2.7%, -7.7), Green 41 (2.4%, +2.4). Swing of 6% from UKIP to Lab since 2011.

Chertsey Meads Ward, Runneymede DC. Con hold. Con 489 (42.2%, +1.9), Lab 329 (28.4%, +0.5), UKIP 327 (28.2%, +0.3), OMRL 15 (1.3%, +0.4). Swing from Lab to Con of 0.7% since 2012 by-election.

Ludlow North Division, Shropshire UA. LD gain from Con. LD 579 (45.3%, +11.7), Con 382 (29.9%, -10.5), Ind 223 (17.4%, +17.4), Lab 94 (7.4%, -1.4). Swing of 11.1% from Con to LD since 2013.

Aveland Ward, South Kesteven DC. Con 359 (75.6%, +3.4), Lab 116 (24.4%, +24.4). Swing of 10.5% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Labourlist column

My latest Labourlist column is about Gordon Brown: http://labourlist.org/2014/03/gordon-brown-still-has-something-significant-to-contribute-to-political-life/

Council by-elections

There were five by-elections yesterday and a further five in the previous three weeks. Overall these have been weak results for Labour, with the loss of seats in Birmingham and Bury to Tories suggesting the local authority elections in May might not be spectacular. Note also the pattern of the Lib Dems being reduced to derisory votes in urban wards but still being competitive in rural areas where they have organisation.

6 March

Wye Ward, Ashford DC. Ind gain from Con. Ind 323 (43.1%, +11.5), Con 240 (32%, -6.9), UKIP 97 (12.9%, +3.3), Green 55 (7.3%, +7.3), Lab 22 (2.9%, -8.2), LD 13 (1.7%, -7.1). Swing of 9.2% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Ramsbottom Ward, Bury MBC. Con gain from Lab. Con 1398 (47%, +7.6), Lab 1033 (34.7%, -16.3), UKIP 351 (11.8%, +5.4), Green 157 (5.3%, +5.3), LD 38 (1.3%, -2). Swing of 12% from Lab to Con since 2012.

Burnham Ward, King’s Lynn & West Norfolk DC. Con hold. Con 374 (78.4%, +5.6), UKIP 103 (21.6%, +21.6). Swing of 8% from Con to UKIP since 2011.

Clifton North Ward, Nottingham UA. Lab hold. Lab 1179 (41.2%, -9.7), Con 1025 (35.8%, -13.3), UKIP 536 (18.7%, +18.7), Elvis 67 (2.3%, +2.3), LD 56 (2%, +2). Swing of 1.8% from Con to Lab since 2011.

Ethandune Division, Wiltshire UA. Con hold. Con 480 (35.6, -25.1), LD 372 (27.6%, +3), UKIP 236 (17.5%, +17.5), Ind 192 (14.2, +14.2), Lab 69 (5.1%, -9.6). Swing of 14.1% from Con to LD since 2013.

27 Feb

Scotter Ward, West Lindsey DC. Con hold. Con 577 (65.7%, +44.5), LD 301 (34.3%, +20). Swing of 11.3% from LD to Con since 2013 by-election.

20 Feb

Canton Ward, Cardiff UA. Lab 1201 (41.7%, -5.9), PC 972 (33.7%, +14.3), Con 381 (13.2%, +2.4), Green 148 (5.1%, -10.4), TUSC 101 (3.5%, +1.6), LD 80 (2.6%, +0.3). Swing of 10.1% from Lab to PC since 2012.

Bistall Wanslip Ward, Charnwood DC. LD gain from Con. LD 508 (39.6%, +15.2), Con 419 (32.7%, -15.1), Lab 355 (27.7%, -0.1). Swing of 15.2% from Con to LD since 2011.

13 Feb

Kingstanding Ward, Birmingham CC. Con gain from Lab. Con 1571 (47%, +7.3), Lab 1433 (42.8%, -6.8), UKIP 266 (7.9%, +7.9), LD 43 (1.3%, -0.7), NF 33 (1%, +0.1). Swing of 7.1% from Lab to Con since 2012.

Reeth & Arkengarthdale Ward, Richmondshire DC. Ind hold. Ind 273 (76.7%, -11.3), Con 83 (23.3%, +11.3). Swing of 11.3% from Ind to Con since 2011.

Labourlist Column

My Labourlist column this week was about implementation of the Collins Report: http://labourlist.org/2014/03/now-its-all-about-the-implementation/

A response to Mel Ward about the Co-op's Israel boycott policy

I welcome Mel Ward’s response to my article for Progress opposing the Co-op’s Israel boycott policy. It raises some important points that need to be addressed.

I think Mel is a very important voice in the debate about Israel and the Palestinians within the Labour Party, as someone who clearly has a great affection for Israel and the Jewish people, considers herself still to be a friend of Israel, but has been a powerful advocate of the rights of the Palestinians, not least during the three months she spent living in Hebron and seeing firsthand some of the most troubling aspects of the conflict.

I share Mel’s sense of urgency about achieving a two state solution. I really hope the current talks work. 47 years is too long for the Palestinians to have not had their freedom. As a Zionist I argue that the Jewish people have the right to self-determination and a nation state of their own, so it would be logically and morally ridiculous, as well as politically stupid, to try to deny this to the Palestinians.

But Mel has slightly misunderstood the scope of the Co-op’s boycott. She defends it on the basis that it is a boycott of produce from “illegal Israeli settlements”. In fact this kind of targeted boycott of settlement produce was the initial stance the Co-op took in 2009. The point at which pro-Israel campaigners started protesting against the Co-op’s boycott was when they extended it beyond settlement produce in 2012, to no longer stock any produce from four Israeli exporters because those companies source some (their websites suggest a small minority) of their produce from settlements. This means that the Co-op does not stock fruit and veg from Agrexco, Arava Export Growers, AdaFresh and Mehadrin even if it is grown in pre-1967 Israel. In fact one of these companies, Agrexco, is the main export channel to Europe for Palestinian fresh produce, so the Co-op boycott has absurdly included produce grown by Palestinian farmers.

This expansion to a secondary boycott illustrates one of the problems with Mel’s own preferred narrow boycott of settlement produce. In reality this narrow boycott is seen as the first stage, the foot in the door, of the multi-stage global BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) campaign, the culmination of which is intended to be a full consumer, cultural and academic boycott and state sanctions against Israel.
The anti-Israel BDS campaign thus shares a tactic and a measurement of success with the smaller group of people like Mel who don’t want to boycott Israel itself but do want to boycott settlement goods.

This means that when an organisation like the Co-op adopts a settlement boycott policy it isn’t just greeted as a victory by people like Mel who specifically dislike settlements, it is trumpeted by the BDS movement as a first stage victory for BDS and a stepping stone on the path to delegitimisation of Israel and an eventual one state solution i.e. Israel ceasing to exist.

It also means that the practical manifestations of a settlement boycott campaign are very difficult to tell apart from the manifestations of a general anti-Israel boycott, and are ugly and unpleasant.

The boycott of SodaStream is a settlement produce boycott because SodaStream’s factory is in Ma’ale Adumim. Its main practical manifestation is a weekly demonstration outside SodaStream’s EcoStream shop in Brighton which doesn’t limit itself to anti-settlement messages but also features anti-Israel messaging. These demonstrations have caused a huge amount of distress to Brighton’s small Jewish Community.

The boycott of environmental services contractor Veolia is a settlement produce boycott because Veolia is, in the boycotters’ words, “complicit in war crimes” because it has a stake in building the Jerusalem tram, which both Jews and Arabs can use to travel across Jerusalem from western areas that were always Israeli to eastern areas of the city that are considered settlements. The demonstrators outside my town hall when this boycott was due to be debated did not confine themselves to criticism of settlements.

The boycott of Ahava is a settlement produce boycott because the beauty produce company uses minerals from the banks of the Dead Sea in an area that was not part of Israel before 1967. The practical manifestation of this boycott was an Israeli-owned shop being driven out of business in central London by regular demonstrations that looked and sounded like they were opposed to Israel as a whole, not just settlements, and which many Jewish people have told me they found distressingly similar to the picket lines outside Jewish shops in Germany in the 1930s.

The problem for Mel is that all these settlement boycotts look very much like Israel boycotts. They are supported, promoted, and largely led by people who do not support a two state solution like Mel does. If she went on one of these picket lines she would find herself surrounded by people from the SWP and PSC (Palestine Solidarity Campaign), a group whose logo does not show a two state solution, it shows a unitary Palestine, and some of whose local chapters have been repeatedly exposed for linking from their websites to anti-semitic and Holocaust denial material.

The use of boycotts as a tactic in regard to Israel is designed to have a very specific resonance with the main historic 20^th Century boycott campaign, which was against apartheid South Africa. By using the tactic that was used against apartheid, the BDS movement seeks to create an intellectual parallel between Israel and apartheid. My BICOM colleague Professor Alan Johnson has written an extensive booklet about this smear and its sinister origins.

Mel accuses me of “the deliberate conflation of criticism of the policy and practice of the Israeli government with delegitimisation of the state of Israel.”

Nothing could be further from the truth. The organisation I am Director of, We Believe in Israel, is open to any friend of Israel, however critical or not they are of current Israeli policies, as long as they support a two state solution. We have people we work with and who are on our mailing list who share Mel’s distaste for the Netanyahu government, who believe settlements are illegal, and who want Israel to retreat to precisely the pre-1967 Green Line as a border when two states are created.

But we have a very firm view about when criticism becomes delegitimisation.

Any form of boycott does constitute delegitimisation because it reinforces the false narrative that Israel is analogous with apartheid South Africa.

Boycott is an extreme tactic of last resort that has traditionally been used against international pariah regimes who epitomise evil, not as a way of influencing the policy of a democracy. As such its use implicitly delegitimises Israel.

The Jewish Community in the UK, through the Jewish Leadership Council and the elected Board of Deputies, has pleaded with the Co-op to drop its boycott because it delegitimises Israel and causes such distress to many British Jews. Mel is a friend of the Jewish Community and should listen to them.

Mel says that this “conflation” “is a tactic increasingly used to shut moderate voices out of the debate on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”. The problem is that if the “moderate voices” conflate their tactics with those used by the extreme voices who don’t want Israel to exist, it becomes difficult to distinguish between them. It is asking too much to expect supporters of Israel who see a baying mob outside an Israeli shop to say “oh that picket line is OK because it might include people we know hate Israel and slogans that are about destroying Israel, but it isn’t part of the wider BDS phenomenon (even though the BDS movement says it is) because it targets settlement goods.”

I think Mel is guilty of a conflation too. She wants to portray all settlers as being religious or political extremists set on confrontation with the Palestinians. There are a tiny minority, often in outposts that Israel itself considers illegal, who fit this stereotype. But the vast majority of settlers are just ordinary Israeli civilians whose homes happen to be the wrong side of a fairly arbitrary 1949 armistice line established wherever the frontline was at the end of the War of Independence. The 70,000 Jews who have returned to live in Gush Etzion returned to an area that was Jewish before a massacre in 1948. The Jews living in East Jerusalem are often returning to neighbourhoods, including the Jewish Quarter of the Old City, which had had Jewish inhabitants for three thousand years but were ethnically cleansed by the Jordanians.

Mel is simply wrong to claim that “There is no possible scenario where a two-state solution is achievable without dismantling the vast majority of these settlements.” This is just factually incorrect and is in fact the opposite of the truth. Every “possible scenario where a two-state solution is achievable” that has been tabled in recent years, including the Arab Peace Initiative, involves the large settlement blocks where most of the settlements are, around Jerusalem, along the Green Line, and at Ariel and Ma’ale Adumim (where the SodaStream factory is) becoming part of Israel, with landswaps compensating the Palestinians. Why would you boycott produce from places that the peace process will establish are going to legally become part of Israel?

It’s an honourable position to say Israel needs to give up all the settlements. But it’s a completely theoretical one which bears  no relation to what’s actually being debated in the current peace process. Insisting on it makes it more difficult for Israel to sign a deal and create a Palestinian state because it increases the percentage of the settlers who would lose their homes and therefore would oppose a deal. Quite aside from the political implications I cannot see any humanitarian argument for not minimising the number of people who have to abandon their homes and livelihoods as part of a peace deal. The wars between Israel and its Arab neighbours already created millions of refugees on both sides. Another round of ethnic cleansing isn’t morally justifiable.

Insisting on it also makes it more difficult for Israel to address its security concerns as key settlements are sited to stop Jerusalem being cut off and besieged as it was in 1948, and to stop artillery being able to shell Tel Aviv from the heights of the West Bank, and to stop shoulder-launched missiles being able to hit passenger jets at Ben Gurion airport. These are not theoretical considerations for a country that has been repeatedly attacked by its neighbours, including in the 1967 war that actually led to the territories being captured by Israel. Not addressing these security concerns would make a deal unsellable to Israel.

Mel states that “Israel is continuing to build settlements at such a rate that there soon will not be enough land left for a Palestinian state to be viable”. This is a commonly propagated myth. The footprint of Israeli settlements is not particularly expanding. Almost every announcement about construction relates to making housing more dense in places that the consensus is will become part of Israel in a peace deal.

Mel cites Douglas Alexander and William Hague restating the UK position that settlements are illegal. But she doesn’t mention that both of them oppose boycotts. The legal position the UK holds is based on an interpretation of the Fourth Geneva Convention which boils down to whether Israel has violated a ban on the transfer of civilian populations into territory the government occupies. Israel would argue this ban was written to stop WW2 style involuntary deportations to occupied territories, not voluntary movements of population. In any case, this is a law about population movement, not the economic enterprises whose produce Mel wants boycotted. In fact Israeli economic activity in the areas defined as Area C, such as the Sodastream factory, is explicitly endorsed by the Oslo Accords agreed with the Palestinians. Even if every settlement was evacuated, why would anyone who cared about the Palestinians want to also evict the Israeli companies that invest there and employ Palestinians? Surely Israeli investment is going to be a major factor in whether a Palestinian state is economically viable?

Mel is being one-sided when she focuses on settlements as a potential block to a deal. Settlements are actually one of the easier issues to deal with. Anyone with a pen, a map and a calculator could negotiate a new border that gives most of the settlements to Israel but creates a contiguous and viable Palestinian state. To understand this it is worth reading this paper by Shaul Arieli.

Supporters of peace need to put a bit of pressure on the Palestinian Authority to abandon the failed strategy of rejectionism, recognise Israel as a Jewish State (thereby abandoning delegitimising Zionism and Israel), stop selling dangerous fantasies about a mass return to Israel of the descendents of 1948 refugees, and seriously clamp down on the terrifying levels of hate education and incitement against Jews and Israel in Palestinian society. These are real barriers to peace.

Mel needs to scrutinise the groups she praises a bit more. She cites as an example The Israeli Committee Against House Demolitions. Sounds like a worthy group. But ICAHD is led by Jeff Halper who doesn’t support a two state solution like Mel and I do. Halper says”A Jewish state has proven politically and, in the end, morally untenable”, “The “two-state” solution envisioned by all Israeli governments since 1967…is simply unacceptable”. He calls for “an international campaign for a single state.” The elimination of Israel. He denounced the Annapolis negotiations of 2007-8 as a plot against the Palestinian people against which the only resistance was Hamas, an organization whose charter calls for Israel’s destruction.

Mel says she supports Israel. I believe her. But she need to realise that supporting the boycotting of the produce of Israeli companies by the Co-op is not a great way to show this.

In my original article I set out the constructive, positive, things the Co-op could do in the Middle East instead of entangling itself in boycotts. I hope Mel will look at these and reconsider her tactics.

Labourlist column

My column today on Labour's successful tactics vs UKIP in Wythenshawe: http://labourlist.org/2014/02/how-labour-suffers-from-lets-ignore-everyone-except-the-tories-syndrome/

Labourlist column

My column today for Labourlist on Ed's speech on public services: http://labourlist.org/2014/02/eds-speech-on-public-services-the-difference-i-voted-for/

Council by-elections

There were just four council by-elections yesterday, with no seats changing hands.

Betws yn Rhos Ward, Conwy UA. Ind 347 (46%, +2.7), PC 197 (26.1%, -1.8), Ind 127 (16.8%, +16.8), Con 83 (11%, +11). Swing of 2.3% from PC to Ind since 2012.

Arbourthorne Ward, Sheffield MBC. Lab hold. Lab 1398 (52.2%, -10.1), UKIP 482 (18%, +3.3), Con 213 (8%, -0.1), TUSC 204 (7.6%, +7.6), LD 161 (6%, -1.4), Green 143 (5.3%, -2.1), Eng Dem 75 (2.8%, +2.8). Swing of 6.7% from Lab to UKIP since 2012.

Peter Bruff Ward, Tendring DC. Con hold. Con 271 (38.1%, -3.2), Lab 180 (25.3%, +1.5), UKIP 153 (21.5%, +21.5), LD 108 (15.2%, -19.9). Swing of 2.4% from Con to Lab since 2011.

St John’s Ward, Tendring DC. Con hold. Con 423 (44.4%, +2.5), Lab 272 (28.6%, -2.9), UKIP 208 (21.8%, +21.8), Ind 49 (5.1%, +5.1). Swing of 2.7% from Lab to Con since 2011.

Labourlist column

My Labourlist column this week on the party reform debate: http://labourlist.org/2014/02/party-reform-an-omelette-without-breaking-any-political-eggs/

Labour First welcomes Party reform proposals

Labour First welcomes the announcement of the reform proposals that will be put to the Special Conference on 1st March. We are encouraging delegates to support the package of changes at the Conference.

We are pleased that aspects of our own submission were accepted and recognise that the proposals inevitably involve a degree of compromise in order to get consensus support from across the Party and its stakeholders.

We are delighted that a mechanism has been found that enables the collective affiliation of trade unions and socialist societies to be maintained alongside the introduction of the principle of consent for individual members of affiliates paying affiliation fees to the Labour Party.

We welcome the fact that all candidates in leadership elections will now be able to contact all eligible voters and that the Labour Party will be able to communicate directly with affiliated members, involve them in campaigning and other local activities, and hopefully encourage them to take up individual membership.

We are pleased that our concerns about the potential risks of primary elections leading to a “big money” aspect to candidate selection have been reflected and that the London Mayor selection will be based on the same principles as the leadership ballots. We also welcome the thinking that is going on around fairness and spending limits in all selections, though we hope further work will be done on the detail around this.

We regret that the opportunity has not been taken to equalise the number of CLP and trade union representatives on the NEC and to regionalise the CLP representation. Members, who are the backbone of our campaigning, remain under-represented on the Party’s National Executive, and the regions are also likely to remain under-represented. We will continue to make the case for this change.

In any areas where we have specific concerns around detail, reducing risks and technical issues, such as the proposed short-listing process for London Mayor, we will be raising them with Lord Collins and the Labour Party.

Keith Dibble, Chair
Luke Akehurst, Secretary

About Labour First

Labour First is a network which exists to ensure that the voices of moderate party members are heard while the party is kept safe from the organised hard left, and those who seek to divert us from the work of making life better for ordinary working people and their families.

We believe in:
• Putting Labour First
Keeping the Labour Party as a party of Government with mainstream and election winning policies.

• The Trade Union Link
The unions are an integral part of our party.

• Strong Local Government
More power for local councillors not unaccountable community groups and quangos. Councillors deserve a strong voice within our party.

• Security for the UK
The UK playing a full role in the EU and NATO and maintaining our special relationship with the USA. We oppose unilateral nuclear disarmament.

We can be contacted at labourfirst@gmail.com

Council by-elections

There were just three council by-elections yesterday. The Tories lost a seat to the Lib Dems, their 4th loss in January:

Heanor East Ward, Amber Valley DC. Lab hold. Lab 548 (58.4%, +8.4), Con 350 (37.3%, +11), LD 41 (4.4%, -0.3). Swing of 1.3% from Lab to Con since 2012.

Chadsmead Ward, Lichfield DC. LD gain from Con. LD 206 (36%, +4.8), Lab 157 (27.4%, -1.6), UKIP 108 (18.8%, +18.8), Con 102 (17.8%, -22). Swing of 3.2% from Lab to LD since 2011. Tories dropped from 1st place to 4th.

Buckie Ward, Moray UA. Ind hold. First preferences: Ind 830 (44.6%, -3.2), SNP 670 (36%, -9.1), Ind (220, 11.8%, +11.8), Con 143 (7.7%, +0.6). Swing of 3% from SNP to Ind since 2012.

Labourlist column

My column on the difference between reaction to Ed Balls' speech to the Fabians this year vs his 2012 one: http://labourlist.org/2014/01/what-a-difference-two-years-make/

Council by-elections

As well as Labour's victory in the Cowdenbeath Scottish Parliament by-election there were two council by-elections yesterday:

Motherwell North Ward, North Lanarkshire UA. Lab hold. First preferences: Lab 1719 (68.2%, +0.2), SNP 520 (20.6%, -4.7), Con 173 (6.9%, +2.5), UKIP 107, 4.2%, +4.2). Swing of 2.5% from SNP to Lab since 2012.

West Leigh Ward, Southend-on-Sea UA. Con hold. Con 743 (37.2%, -12.5), LD  688 (34.4%, +3.9), UKIP 418 (20.9%, +20.9), Lab  149 (7.5%, -1.7). Swing of 8.2% from Con to LD since 2012.

Labourlist column

My column this week for Labourlist takes a geeky look at Labour's chances of victory: http://labourlist.org/2014/01/8-reasons-labour-has-a-good-chance-of-an-overall-majority/

Council by-election

There was only one council by-election yesterday but it was a significant result. Labour gained a knife-edge marginal seat from the Tories in Trafford, one of only two Metropolitan boroughs they still control, and in a ward bordering onto Wythenshawe & Sale East where there is soon to be a parliamentary by-election.

This means the Tories have lost all three of the seats they have defended so far this year.

Broadheath Ward, Trafford MBC.  Lab gain from Con. Lab 1377 (44.6%, -1.7), Con 1258 (40.8%, +1.8), UKIP 234 (7.6%, +1.4), LD 150 (4.9%, +0.6), Green 67 (2.2%, -2.2). Swing of 1.8% from Lab to Con since 2012.

LabourList Column

First of my new regular Labourlist columns:

http://labourlist.org/2014/01/expecting-fireworks-at-the-special-conference-think-again/

Council by-elections

There were just three council by-elections this week, including two Tory losses, one a dramatic win for UKIP in Haverhill, a London-overspill town which has previously been competitive between the Tories and Labour.

7 January

Swinton South Ward, Salford MBC. Lab hold. Lab 661 (45.1%, -0.5), Con 298 (20.3%, +4.3), UKIP 215 (14.7%, +14.7), Green 196 (13.4%, -3.4), Eng Dem 54 (3.7%, -1.1), TUSC 43 (2.9%, +2.9). Swing of 2.4% from Lab to Con since 2012.

9 January

Haverhill East Ward, St Edmunsbury BC. UKIP gain from Con. UKIP 529 (54%, +54), Lab 240 (24.5%, -12.7), Con 157 (16%, -31.9), LD 54 (5.5%, -9.4). Swing of 33.4% from Lab to UKIP since 2011.

Borough Green & Long Mill Ward, Tonbridge & Malling DC. Ind gain from Con. Ind 692 (38.9%, +6.1), Con 588 (33%, -22.5), UKIP 349 (19.6%, +19.6), Lab 84 (4.7%, -7), Green 68 (3.8%, +3.8). Swing of 14.3% from Con to Ind since 2011.

Why I'm standing for the NEC this year

In a General Election year we need NEC members with real campaigning expertise and experience who can add value to the NEC oversight of Labour’s election campaign. We need people we can trust to take fair decisions and ensure members are presented with a real choice of candidates in overseeing the late candidate selections that happen close to an election. And we need people who will contribute constructive, vote-winning policy ideas to Labour’s final manifesto formulation. After the election we need an NEC that seeks to work with an incoming Labour Government not criticise it from the sidelines.

I believe I would bring all those qualities to the NEC. The proof is in my record when I served on the NEC previously from 2010 to 2012.

And at a time when the essential link between Labour and our trade union affiliates is under intense pressure, I believe that as an NEC member I could help play an important role in defending that link, as a staunch supporter of it but also someone firmly grounded in Labour’s moderate wing.

Last time I only just missed re-election by under 200 votes. This time I’m asking for your support to return to the NEC and pick up where I left off in 2012 as a strong voice for transparency and accountability, Party democracy, upholding the rulebook, and moderate election-winning values and policies; and a proven grassroots campaigner with real experience of how the Party works, and how it can win, to bring to the table.

My campaign website is here: http://www.luke4nec.org.uk/

You can register your support here: http://www.luke4nec.org.uk/register-your-support/

and on Facebook here: https://www.facebook.com/luke4nec